Bet Smart & Win — Newmarket Race Preview
Wednesday 22 October 2025 • Good • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 68%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 7.69
- Overround: 111%
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 4.35
- Overround: 111%
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 77%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 7.14
- Overround: 111%
Race Analysis
Overround sits inside our target band. Reem Rak is the likely leader but priced a shade below fair; Athena’s War offers Above Fair value on form; Guesstimate rates the place play from a powerful yard.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: S Woods
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 4.55
- Overround: 112%
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: James Horton
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 6.67
- Overround: 112%
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: George Scott
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 9.09
- Overround: 112%
Race Analysis
Ideal profile race. Savvy Disko marginal value pick; Chain Link is solid on form; Major Neigh Sayer rates a fair each-way option.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 1.96
- Overround: 107%
Details
- J: Silvestre De Sousa
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 4.17
- Overround: 107%
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Owen Burrows
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 6.25
- Overround: 107%
Race Analysis
Small field outside our ideal. Study Of Words is a short-priced Above Fair favourite; Aussie Pearl the clear second; Sayedaati Saadati respected for the frame.
Details
- J: Silvestre De Sousa
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 2.50
- Overround: 106%
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 2.44
- Overround: 106%
Details
- J: Jack Doughty
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 7.14
- Overround: 106%
Race Analysis
Only four runners again. Explosion and Commanding Officer are closely matched; Explosion shades it on price as Above Fair. Crystal Pier completes the set as the outsider.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 5.00
- Overround: 109%
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 3.45
- Overround: 109%
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 4.35
- Overround: 109%
Race Analysis
Competitive handicap. Silent City (C&D winner) offers Above Fair value; Maybe Not solid but a touch Below Fair; Naga arrives in form and is respected for the places.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 3.33
- Overround: 108%
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 77%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 4.00
- Overround: 108%
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 5.56
- Overround: 108%
Race Analysis
Strong profile race. Superior Choice is the value newcomer; Poetry Of Time brings rock-solid experience; Golden Knight has fair place claims.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: Jane Chapple-Hyam
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 5.26
- Overround: 110%
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Hamad Al Jehani
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 83%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 2.63
- Overround: 110%
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: William Stone
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (dec, from IP): 10.00
- Overround: 110%
Race Analysis
Ideal nursery. Dark Shore is strong Above Fair value; Quiescent is the standard setter but Below Fair at current quotes; Romantic Twilight has solid each-way credentials.
Analysis
Strong Above Fair value in an 8-runner nursery with an overround of 110%. Proven profile and top jockey booking — back with confidence.