Bet Smart & Win — Fontwell Race Preview
Thursday 23 October 2025 • 7 Races • Going: Good
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m3f29y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: 7/2 (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Solid novice form; up in trip looks a plus. Sets a fair standard.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Philip Hobbs & J White
- Trip: 2m3f29y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: 11/4 (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Strong bumper/maiden profile; major player if fluent at hurdles again.
Details
- J: Tom O’Brien
- T: Joe Tizzard
- Trip: 2m3f29y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: 4/1 (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent; shaping like this trip will suit. Each-way value.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m3f29y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: 7/2 (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Reliable sets of efforts; strong chance to get off the mark.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 2m3f29y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 4/1 (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Bumper winner; this looks easier than spring assignment. Main danger.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Emma Lavelle
- Trip: 2m3f29y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: 15/2 (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Interesting type on hurdles bow; respected for in-form yard.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m1f165y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: 3/1 (forecast)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Back down in class/mark; jumping sound; prime chance.
Details
- J: Bryan Carver
- T: D Summersby
- Trip: 2m1f165y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: 18/1 (forecast)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Lightly raced chaser; capable of a big step forward now handicapping.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m1f165y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: 7/2 (forecast)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
C&D winner; obvious claims if getting a clean round.
Details
- J: C P O’Shea (7)
- T: Harry Fry
- Trip: 2m3f29y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: 4/1 (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Good seasonal return; well treated; leading claims.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Billy Aprahamian
- Trip: 2m3f29y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: 9/2 (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Handicap debut; profile suggests improvement to come.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Mrs A M Thorpe
- Trip: 2m3f29y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: 11/2 (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Reliable mare; each-way chance in a compressed handicap.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m3f29y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: 7/2 (forecast)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Fresh record strong; workable mark back over hurdles.
Details
- J: H Cobden
- T: Emma Lavelle
- Trip: 2m3f29y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: 5/2 (forecast)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
In mix when falling in EBF Final; big chance if ready.
Details
- J: Lorcan Williams
- T: Milton Harris
- Trip: 2m3f29y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: 11/2 (forecast)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Well treated on old form; sneaky each-way value.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Emma Lavelle
- Trip: 3m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: 7/1 (forecast)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Stays well; recent second reads nicely; strong claims.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Peter Bowen
- Trip: 3m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: 9/1 (forecast)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Course winner; bold show likely if getting own way up front.
Details
- J: Rex Dingle
- T: Chris Gordon
- Trip: 3m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 3/1 (forecast)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Last-time winner; a shade short on our numbers at current quotes.
Details
- J: Tom Cannon
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 2m3f
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: 10/3 (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Progressive novice; opening mark looks workable; the one to beat.
Details
- J: Nico de Boinville
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m3f
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: 4/1 (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Won a weak novice but enters handicaps on fair mark; danger.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m3f
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: 11/2 (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Winning pointer/novice; scope for more; solid place claims.