Bet Smart & Win — Nottingham Race Preview
Thursday 23 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane • T: David Loughnane
- Trip: 1m75y
- Trainer RTF%: 21%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
High normalized probability; solid form; talented claimer booked. Value: fair.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark • T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 1m75y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Forecast favourite on implied chance. Major player; value: fair.
Details
- J: Jason Watson • T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m75y
- Trainer RTF%: 66%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Fair value in a competitive heat; stable form adds credibility.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane • T: Richard Hughes
- Trip: 6f18y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Model’s top pick; progressive profile at fair value.
Details
- J: Rob Hornby • T: Jack Morland
- Trip: 6f18y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Forecast favourite; strong recent form; fair value.
Details
- J: Alex Voikhansky • T: Tom Ward
- Trip: 6f18y
- Trainer RTF%: 27%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Live outsider; fair value; chance to outrun odds.
Details
- J: Barry McHugh • T: Paul Midgley
- Trip: 6f18y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Expert’s NAP; strong value; conditions ideal.
Details
- J: Duran Fentiman • T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 6f18y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Key danger; fair value and competitive.
Details
- J: David Allan • T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 6f18y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Joint forecast favourite; solid each-way credentials.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane • T: George Boughey
- Trip: 2m1f208y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Clear model top pick; last-time-out win strong.
Details
- J: Warren Fentiman • T: Paddy Butler
- Trip: 2m1f208y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Main danger; fair value and in fine form.
Details
- J: Joanna Mason • T: Michael & David Easterby
- Trip: 2m1f208y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent; fair value; should be involved late.
Details
- J: Jason Hart • T: Mark Walford
- Trip: 1m75y
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Model preference on value; 3yo with more to come.
Details
- J: Rose Dawes • T: Pam Sly
- Trip: 1m75y
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Forecast favourite on highest implied probability; fair value.
Details
- J: Taryn Langley • T: Peter Chapple-Hyam
- Trip: 1m75y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Recent winner; fair value to complete the shortlist.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell • T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 1m6f
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Strong value; step up in trip to suit; major player.
Details
- J: Lewis Edmunds • T: Jack Jones
- Trip: 1m6f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
3yo with stamina potential; fair value; solid chance.
Details
- J: William Pyle • T: Jennie Candlish
- Trip: 1m6f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Forecast favourite with highest NP; fair value; consistent.
Details
- J: Warren Fentiman • T: John Mackie
- Trip: 1m6f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Expert selection; strong value; weighted to run big.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin • T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m6f
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Forecast favourite; fair value; powerful yard.
Details
- J: Pierre-Louis Jamin • T: Harry Eustace
- Trip: 1m6f
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Well-tipped and consistent; fair value; reliable contender.
Details
- J: Ben Robinson • T: Brian Ellison
- Trip: 1m2f50y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Reliable performer dropping in class; strong value; well-suited to conditions.
Details
- J: Archie Young • T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 1m2f50y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Forecast favourite; high NP; fair value; thriving 3yo.
Details
- J: Jake Dickson • T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 1m2f50y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Thriving 3yo; expert sees as potential pick; fair value; live danger.
Analysis
Strong value assessment, expert nap selection, and ideal race conditions. Back with confidence.