Bet Smart & Win — Southwell Race Preview
Friday 24 October 2025 • 9 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Stevie Donohoe
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 4f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
High RTF yard; recent win on the card; NP > IP flags value.
Details
- J: Josephine Gordon
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 4f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Market pick on consistency; solid place claims on the numbers.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trip: 4f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 31%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Well-backed profile; pace to figure; EW value angle.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Tom Ward
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 10%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Sets the form standard; experience edge; rightful fav on NP/IP.
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Unexposed; improvement likely; rates a big player.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Owen Burrows
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Powerful connections; profiles for improvement; shortlist.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Kevin Philippart De Foy
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Clear standout on form; NP>IP confirms value at short odds.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Richard Spencer
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid form; chief threat to the fav.
Details
- J: Edward Greatrex
- T: Hugo Palmer
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Debutant; needs to be smart to trouble top two.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Daniel & Claire Kubler
- Trip: 4f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Recent C&D win; profile still well-treated; value edge.
Details
- J: Stevie Donohoe
- T: John Ryan
- Trip: 4f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Reliable C&D type; major player; marginally behind on value.
Details
- J: Sean Kirrane
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 4f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Weighted to be dangerous; each-way value identified.
Details
- J: Zak Wheatley
- T: Declan Carroll
- Trip: 1m4f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Consistent; recent win over trip; Above Fair value retained.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: David Menuisier
- Trip: 1m4f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Knocking on the door; strong value case; big player.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: James Horton
- Trip: 1m4f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 31%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Last-time-out winner; fair value to follow up.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: Mike Murphy
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Well-handicapped; consistent; knocking on the door—today could be it.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: Thomas Faulkner
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Honest sort; runs his race; rock-solid place claims.
Details
- J: Kaiya Fraser
- T: Ruth Carr
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
C&D winner; retains upside at mark; each-way player.
Details
- J: Dylan Hogan
- T: Michael Herrington
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Big C&D run last week; narrow model pick on value.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Rightful fav on current form; just behind on pure value vs Heretic.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Tony Carroll
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent; fair value for minor money.
Details
- J: William Pyle
- T: Michael Appleby
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Handicap mark invites; speculative but value-positive.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: James Tate
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Consistent filly; obvious contender; fair value.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: S Woods
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
C&D winner; fairly treated; shortlist for places.
Details
- J: Edward Greatrex
- T: Nikki Evans
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Clear NP>IP edge; trainer flying; nap credentials.
Details
- J: Dylan Hogan
- T: Julia & Shelley Birkett
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Reliable profile; NP>IP ticks value box; big run expected.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Ed Dunlop
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: — (update when market live)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Market fancy; fair value for places; main danger to the pick.
Analysis
Strong Above Fair value, trainer 100% RTF, clear NP>IP edge. Back with confidence.