Bet Smart & Win — Dundalk Race Preview
Friday 24 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Jack Kearney
- T: Stephen Thorne
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
The form pick and top-rated runner. Shows Above Fair value and is a strong contender to win this claiming race.
Details
- J: Wayne Lordan
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Respected from a leading yard. Value is Above Fair, making her a solid pick for a place.
Details
- J: Adam Grant
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
An improving type who won last time out. Shows Above Fair value and can challenge for the finish.
Details
- J: Joseph Harnett
- T: Sean Davis
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
The favourite after a C&D win. Value is Above Fair, but carries a 10lb penalty which makes him vulnerable.
Details
- J: Wesley Joyce
- T: Daniel James Murphy
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
An eye-catcher last time out. Value is Above Fair and is now better weighted to challenge the favourite.
Details
- J: Jack Kearney
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Has been threatening lately and shows Above Fair value, making him a live outsider for a place.
Details
- J: Jamie Powell
- T: Diego Dias
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
The class pick dropping in grade. Shows Above Fair value and a repeat of her last run makes her the one to beat.
Details
- J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- T: Kevin Michael Smith
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
In good form and just denied over C&D last time. Above Fair value makes him a major player.
Details
- J: James Ryan
- T: T G McCourt
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
A multiple C&D winner. Value is Above Fair and he can challenge if returning to his best form.
Details
- J: Patrick McGettigan
- T: Patrick Magee
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Arrives in excellent consistent form. Shows Above Fair value and is the one to beat based on the strength of her last run.
Details
- J: Seamie Heffernan
- T: Miss Natalia Lupini
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Runner-up on her last two starts. Value is Fair and she looks a major threat on handicap debut.
Details
- J: W J Lee
- T: W McCreery
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
A winner last time out. Value is Above Fair and merits respect stepping up in class.
Details
- J: Wayne Lordan
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
The favourite for a powerful yard. Value is Above Fair and sets the standard in a competitive Group 3.
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: Adrian Murray
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
A consistent sort at this level. Value is Above Fair and she should be in the firing line.
Details
- J: W J Lee
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Comes from a yard in good form. Value is Above Fair and can outrun his odds to secure a place.
Details
- J: Jamie Powell
- T: M D O’Callaghan
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
The market leader after a promising debut. Value is Above Fair and should improve for the step up in trip.
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
The form of his last run is strong. Value is Above Fair and the step up to 1m looks ideal.
Details
- J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
From a leading stable and has experience. Value is Above Fair, making him a serious contender.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Mrs John Harrington
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
The top-rated and form pick. Shows Above Fair value and a repeat of his last C&D run makes him the one to beat.
Details
- J: Robert Whearty
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Likely to improve from his debut. Value is Above Fair and the step up in trip should suit.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: J P Murtagh
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Struggled last time but is better than that. Value is Above Fair and he merits consideration on pick of form.
Analysis
Top-rated horse in the race. Showed a strong performance last time over C&D. The value assessment is significantly Above Fair. Back with confidence.