Bet Smart & Win — Newbury Race Preview
Saturday 25 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Mr Eireann Cagney
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 90%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Top on normalized probability in a competitive handicap. Consistent form and a previous course win are major positives.
Details
- J: Mr Paul Hainey
- T: William Muir & Chris Grassick
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Strong recent form and a good draw. Value assessment is Fair, offering a solid each-way proposition.
Details
- J: Mr Fletcher Yarham
- T: Dylan Cunha
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 27%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Runs off a competitive mark and the booking of a good amateur rider is a positive sign for the conditions.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Charles Hills
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
The form pick who relished heavy ground last time out. Highest normalized probability and clear value.
Details
- J: Charles Bishop
- T: Eve Johnson Houghton
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 31%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Consistent and proven on soft ground. Should be in the firing line once again.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Carries top weight but is classy and has form on the surface. A major player if handling the conditions.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Tom Dascombe
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Sets the standard on form and ratings. Proven on soft ground and holds a class edge.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Highly promising and from a top yard. Expected to improve significantly for the step up in trip.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Unbeaten and open to plenty of improvement. The soft ground is an unknown but the potential is clear.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
From a top stable whose newcomers must be respected. The market support is a key positive.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Well-bred debutante from a shrewd yard. The booking of a strong jockey is a positive signal.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Beckett’s string is in good form and this filly commands respect on debut.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Exciting prospect with a progressive profile. Strong value and scope for further improvement.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 94%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
The form horse and rightful favourite. Proven class but slightly overshadowed on value metrics here.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Consistent and brings solid form to the table. Should be thereabouts at the finish.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Value selection against the favourites. Profile suggests this test will be ideal and he can reverse form.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 94%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Class angle with proven Group-level form; formidable if reproducing best.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Course form a major positive; proven over trip and ground. Live danger to all.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Form pick with experience and a strong run last time. Highest normalized probability in the race.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Very interesting newcomer from a top yard. The booking of James Doyle is a significant positive.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Brings racecourse experience and has shown ability. Could outrun her odds to secure a place.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
In excellent form and first-time headgear could eke out more. The value selection.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent and arrives in winning form. Major player.
Details
- J: Finley Marsh
- T: Richard Hughes
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
In good form and should appreciate the test of stamina in these conditions.
Analysis
Top normalized probability, proven on heavy/soft, trainer in fair nick, clear value classification. Back with confidence.