Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Monday 27 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Joe Fanning
- T: Martin Todhunter
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Top selection on NP with favourable value assessment; strong C&D claims.
Details
- J: Shane Gray
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- Trainer RTF%: 82%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Forecast favourite and clear danger; progressive profile.
Details
- J: Cam Hardie
- T: Antony Brittain
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Reliable type who meets class criteria; fair value in a deep handicap.
Details
- J: Cam Hardie
- T: Antony Brittain
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Strong favourite on NP; has the edge on speed and experience.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Geoff Oldroyd
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Solid placed form; fair value to trouble the favourite.
Details
- J: David Allan
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 34%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Experience counts; consistent enough to make the frame.
Details
- J: Rob Hornby
- T: Charles Hills
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Short-priced on form; superior figures and positive value signal.
Details
- J: Shane Gray
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Respected alternative; fair value with scope to progress.
Details
- J: Cam Hardie
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Experienced; sets a fair standard for minor honours.
Details
- J: Rhys Elliott
- T: Donald Whillans
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Attractive mark and back to favoured surface; selection.
Details
- J: Elle-May Croot
- T: Ivan Furtado
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Likely favourite; strong claims but a touch below fair value.
Details
- J: Rowan Scott
- T: Ben Haslam
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Consistent; merits respect and has a place chance.
Details
- J: Joe Fanning
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
C&D winner who can boss the pace; fair value.
Details
- J: David Allan
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 34%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Market leader with solid profile; obvious player.
Details
- J: Harry Davies
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Drop in class brings him right into it; can’t be dismissed.
Details
- J: David Allan
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 34%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
C&D winner poised to return to winning ways; fair value.
Details
- J: Rob Hornby
- T: Ian McInnes
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Main danger with recent wins; retains strong claims.
Details
- J: Alex Jary
- T: Antony Brittain
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent; completes the shortlist.
Details
- J: Ryan Sexton
- T: Julie Camacho
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Unlucky last time; clear form pick and value angle.
Details
- J: Harry Burns
- T: Linda Perratt
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
C&D winner; consistent and should be involved.
Details
- J: Tom Eaves
- T: Tracy Waggott
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Arrives in form; respected for a placing.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Bred to be superior; top yard; represents fair value.
Details
- J: Joe Fanning
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 82%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent and reliable; chief threat.
Details
- J: Rowan Scott
- T: Tristan Davidson
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid placed form; should be thereabouts.
Analysis
Unlucky last time out, positive trainer/jockey combination, and meets ideal class/runner criteria for a Class 6, 5f on Standard To Slow. Back with confidence.