Bet Smart & Win — Lingfield Race Preview
Monday 27 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Ryan Kavanagh
- T: Conrad Allen
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 117.34%
Analysis
Above Fair value; forecast fav with solid course form.
Details
- J: Molly Gunn
- T: Tony Carroll
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: 4/1
- Overround: 117.34%
Analysis
Above Fair; C&D winner with recent winning form.
Details
- J: Phoebe Edwards
- T: Ross Burdon
- Trainer RTF%: NR
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 117.34%
Analysis
C&D winner; recent win makes him competitive at this level.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Ed Walker
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: 5/4
- Overround: 113.63%
Analysis
Clear form pick; drop in class; Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Clive Cox
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: 2/1
- Overround: 113.63%
Analysis
Strong promise on debut; major player.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: David Menuisier
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 113.63%
Analysis
Experience and a top booking; can run well.
Details
- J: Darragh Keenan
- T: Michael Keady
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: 10/3
- Overround: 119.96%
Analysis
Forecast fav; consistent placer; Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Alex Voikhansky
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 119.96%
Analysis
Solid recent form; represents fair value.
Details
- J: Ashley Lewis
- T: J S Moore
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: 11/2
- Overround: 119.96%
Analysis
Reliable placer; often finds one too good.
Details
- J: Rhys Clutterbuck
- T: Pat Phelan
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 10/1
- Overround: 129.35%
Analysis
Above Fair; can build on promising recent run.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: James Owen
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 129.35%
Analysis
Forecast fav; Above Fair; yard in form.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: David Evans
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: 6/1
- Overround: 129.35%
Analysis
C&D winner; strong claims.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: 4/1
- Overround: 112.59%
Analysis
Dropped in class; recent winner; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Tyler Heard
- T: Denis Coakley
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: 2/1
- Overround: 112.59%
Analysis
Solid and consistent performer; fair value.
Details
- J: William Carson
- T: Tony Carroll
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: 5/2
- Overround: 112.59%
Analysis
Major player on recent form.
Details
- J: Darragh Keenan
- T: George Scott
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 13/8
- Overround: 112.97%
Analysis
Likely improver on stable debut; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: 5/2
- Overround: 112.97%
Analysis
Back to a suitable trip; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Hugo Palmer
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: 9/4
- Overround: 112.97%
Analysis
Shown promise; respected.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: George Boughey
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: 4/1
- Overround: 119.79%
Analysis
Nap contender; progressive profile; Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: William Stone
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 3/1
- Overround: 119.79%
Analysis
Consistent; arrives in good form.
Details
- J: Tyler Heard
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trainer RTF%: 37%
- Odds: 9/2
- Overround: 119.79%
Analysis
Respected from a shrewd yard.
Details
- J: Ryan Kavanagh
- T: Michael Attwater
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: 15/8
- Overround: 119.85%
Analysis
Forecast fav; Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Tom Queally
- T: Peter Crate
- Trainer RTF%: NR
- Odds: 10/1
- Overround: 119.85%
Analysis
Return to 6f suits; marginal preference over #6.
Details
- J: Charles Bishop
- T: Jack Jones
- Trainer RTF%: 31%
- Odds: 10/1
- Overround: 119.85%
Analysis
Also benefits from the trip; place chances.
Analysis
Above Fair Value • Top Jockey/Trainer • Progressive • Favourable conditions. Back with confidence.