Bet Smart & Win — Redcar Race Preview
Monday 27 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Tom Clover
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds (est. dec): 2.27
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Clear form pick in a small field; model top selection.
Details
- J: George Downing
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds (est. dec): 3.45
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Main danger on market position; consistent profile.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: Alice Haynes
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 24%
- Odds (est. dec): 6.67
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Edges the outsider on consistency; place claims.
Details
- J: Dale Swift
- T: Seb Spencer
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 17%
- Odds (est. dec): 4.00
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
York form sets the standard; solid favourite.
Details
- J: Kevin Stott
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds (est. dec): 4.76
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Two solid runs; credible threat with further progress.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds (est. dec): 5.56
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Experience should count; in the mix for places.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds (est. dec): 2.56
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Strongest form credentials; justified favourite.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds (est. dec): 5.00
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid progress; rates the main danger.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 1m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds (est. dec): 5.00
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Close to #4 on figures; should fight out minor honours.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 1m2f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds (est. dec): 4.76
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Consistent 3yo in form; narrow vote in competitive heat.
Details
- J: Greg Fairley
- T: Katie Scott
- Trip: 1m2f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (est. dec): 6.67
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Unexposed 3yo; respected on recent consistency.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: John Gallagher
- Trip: 1m2f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 14%
- Odds (est. dec): 9.09
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Recent good efforts; shortlisted for place purposes.
Details
- J: Luke Catton
- T: Lemos De Souza
- Trip: 1m2f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 83%
- Odds (est. dec): 4.55
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Well-handicapped on past form; the one to beat.
Details
- J: Ben Robinson
- T: Brian Ellison
- Trip: 1m2f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds (est. dec): 6.67
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
In fine form; should be involved.
Details
- J: Kevin Stott
- T: Philip Kirby
- Trip: 1m2f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds (est. dec): 7.69
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Consistent sort; frame chance again.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m2f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds (est. dec): 1.85
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Sets a clear standard; taken to shed the maiden tag.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 1m2f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds (est. dec): 4.76
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Interesting now up in trip; chief threat.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m2f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds (est. dec): 7.69
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Experience angle; can chase the principals home.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: John & Sean Quinn
- Trip: 7f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds (est. dec): 4.76
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Excellent recent form; narrow preference in tight contest.
Details
- J: Kevin Stott
- T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 7f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds (est. dec): 5.88
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Progressive profile; commands respect.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Richard Spencer
- Trip: 7f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds (est. dec): 6.67
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Reliable type; can be in the shake-up.
Details
- J: Oisin McSweeney
- T: Michael & David Easterby
- Trip: 5f217y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds (est. dec): 11.11
- Overround: 115%
Analysis
Falling mark; returns to a favourable track—each-way value.
Details
- J: Jack Nicholls
- T: Peter Niven
- Trip: 5f217y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (est. dec): 8.33
- Overround: 115%
Analysis
Recent C&D win; leading player again.
Details
- J: Tom Kiely-Marshall
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 5f217y
- Trainer RTF%: 34%
- Odds (est. dec): 12.50
- Overround: 115%
Analysis
Solid claims in a wide-open finale.
Analysis
Strong form, top connections, and a softer field profile. This is our “run-that-wins” scenario—back with confidence.