Bet Smart & Win — Bangor-on-Dee Race Preview
Sunday 26 October 2025 • 6 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Billy Aprahamian
- Trip: 2m1f77y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Standout value returning on a winning mark after wind op; well treated.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m1f77y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Market leader; obvious player on recent upturn.
Details
- J: Toby Wynne
- T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
- Trip: 2m1f77y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent profile; merits respect for place and win.
Details
- J: Kielan Woods
- T: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson
- Trip: 2m4f72y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Solid favourite with strong form claims; progressive chase type.
Details
- J: Harry Bannister
- T: Ben Case
- Trip: 2m4f72y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Well regarded; chasing profile suggests more to come.
Details
- J: David Bass
- T: Henry Daly
- Trip: 2m4f72y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Recent winner; shapes like fences will suit; shortlist.
Details
- J: Jamie Brace
- T: Rebecca Curtis
- Trip: 3m30y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
C&D winner with upside; form pick but current market a touch short.
Details
- J: Toby Wynne
- T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
- Trip: 3m30y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Capable on his day; mark workable; value against the fav.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 3m30y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Key contender; tight handicap scenario; around fair price.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Sarah Humphrey
- Trip: 2m3f123y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Useful chaser on a tempting hurdle mark; value angle on stable debut.
Details
- J: Fern O’Brien
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m3f123y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Justified favourite on paper, but price offers limited value.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m3f123y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Last-time-out winner; major player but current odds a shade tight.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m145y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Bumper winner; fine hurdling debut; sets the standard though a bit short.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Rebecca Curtis
- Trip: 2m145y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Strong pointing form; key danger; price slightly ahead of true fair.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m145y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Interesting contender from a powerful yard; value for the places, maybe more.
Details
- J: Dylan Johnston
- T: Sam Thomas
- Trip: 2m7f32y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
New stable recruit with upside; NP > IP and trainer flying — strong value.
Details
- J: Nathan Andrews
- T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
- Trip: 2m7f32y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Form horse and rightful fav, but price is on the short side vs. fair.
Details
- J: Joe Anderson
- T: Alastair Ralph
- Trip: 2m7f32y
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Last-time-out winner; solid claims off revised mark.
Analysis
Trainer Sam Thomas 100% RTF; NP (20%) > IP (18%); stable switch suggests upside. Back with confidence.