Bath 30/10/25 – Tap to Enter!

Bet Smart & Win — Bath Race Preview
Thursday 30 October 2025 • Soft (Heavy in places)

Our AI doesn’t just tip favourites — it measures Bookmaker Overround to find true value in the race. We want NP (our model’s Normalized Probability) to be higher than IP (the market’s Implied Probability from the odds). That’s how we spot value.

ROI: 92.3% | Strike Rate: 27.2%
(from our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers)

12:55 Bath — Bath Rugby Nursery Handicap

1m • Class 6 • 9 runners • Overround 109%

1. Thisonesforyou (#4) — Form 86812 — William Cox for Clive Cox
   NP 30% vs IP 22% • Trainer RTF% 40
2. Takeitorleaveit (#7) — Form 78712p — Rob Hornby for Jonathan Portman
   NP 22% vs IP 20% • Trainer RTF% 45
3. Betty Lemon (#5) — Form 5742 — Jason Watson for Hughie Morrison
   NP 15% vs IP 14% • Trainer RTF% 33

Verdict: Thisonesforyou is the clear value and rates strongest. Takeitorleaveit has proven course form. Betty Lemon is improving and makes her nursery debut.

13:25 Bath — David Cole Memorial EBF Restricted Novice Stakes

1m • Class 4 • 11 runners • Overround 108%

1. Arc Ole Ole (#1) — Form 52 — Kyle Strydom for Dylan Cunha
   NP 26% vs IP 25% • Trainer RTF% 41
2. Pantile’s Gift (#4) — Form 7322 — Daniel Muscutt for Jack Morland
   NP 17% vs IP 17% • Trainer RTF% 14
3. Heroics (#3) — Form 42 — Rob Hornby for Alan King
   NP 12% vs IP 12% • Trainer RTF% 50

Verdict: Arc Ole Ole sets the standard and still looks fairly priced. Pantile’s Gift has already gone close here. Heroics shaped well and is open to a step forward.

13:55 Bath — BetWright Bet The Wright Way Handicap

1m2f37y • Class 5 • 6 runners • Overround 109%

1. Dancing Tiger (#4) — Form 5752133p — Jason Watson for Roger Teal
   NP 16% vs IP 14% • Trainer RTF% 33
2. Platinum Prince (#1) — Form 217128b — Toby Moore for Gary & Josh Moore
   NP 31% vs IP 29% • Trainer RTF% 34
3. Mighty Quiet (#2) — Form 885184t — Daniel Muscutt for Harry Charlton
   NP 16% vs IP 15% • Trainer RTF% 38

Verdict: Dancing Tiger is expected to bounce back dropping from tougher company. Platinum Prince brings the strongest form credentials. Mighty Quiet has track know-how.

14:25 Bath — BetWright Bangers N’Cash Handicap

1m • Class 6 • 11 runners • Overround 108%

1. Equion (#1) — Form 660847 — Daniel Muscutt for Tony Carroll
   NP 26% vs IP 25% • Trainer RTF% 55
2. Gone Rogue (#4) — Form 3267214p — Tom Queally for Gary & Josh Moore
   NP 20% vs IP 20% • Trainer RTF% 34
3. Lovely Jubly (#12) — Form 8880014 — Gina Mangan for Michael Attwater
   NP 12% vs IP 13% • Trainer RTF% 43

Verdict: Equion is well-treated on this ground. Gone Rogue keeps running to a mark that wins in this grade. Lovely Jubly is lightly raced and still unexposed.

14:55 Bath — BeatWright: Beat The Wright Way Handicap

5f160y • Class 5 • 8 runners • Overround 108%

1. Kiss And Run (#5) — Form 9440224t — Jason Watson for Rachel Cook & John Bridger
   NP 28% vs IP 27% • Trainer RTF% 67
2. Marching Mac (#1) — Form 9280114t — Grace McEntee for Phil McEntee
   NP 26% vs IP 25% • Trainer RTF% 50
3. Bonnita (#8) — Form 8466313 — William Cox for Patrick Chamings
   NP 19% vs IP 20% • Trainer RTF% 20

Verdict: Kiss And Run is weighted to turn the tables on Marching Mac. Marching Mac is dangerous back at Bath. Bonnita is honest and still in form.

15:25 Bath — Lambert Smith Hampton Bath H’cap (Div I)

5f160y • Class 6 • 11 runners • Overround 108%

1. Cameley Days (#5) — Form 08V4213p — Daniel Muscutt for Chris Dwyer
   NP 30% vs IP 29% • Trainer RTF% 40
2. All Too Beautiful (#3) — Form 7321293 — Jason Watson for Roger Teal
   NP 12% vs IP 12% • Trainer RTF% 33
3. Mister Sandman (#4) — Form 9643543 — Tom Queally for Gary & Josh Moore
   NP 16% vs IP 17% • Trainer RTF% 34

Verdict: Cameley Days is dangerous despite the penalty. All Too Beautiful keeps knocking on the door. Mister Sandman is another live one from a yard in form.

15:55 Bath — Lambert Smith Hampton Bath H’cap (Div II)

5f160y • Class 6 • 10 runners • Overround 108%

1. Tommytwohoots (#8) — Form 8845747 — Harry Burns for Ian McInnes
   NP 18% vs IP 20% • Trainer RTF% 25
2. Roman Spring (#2) — Form 5031425t — Ryan Kavanagh for Rachel Cook & John Bridger
   NP 17% vs IP 18% • Trainer RTF% 67
3. Autumn Festival (#6) — Form 5923706 — Daniel Muscutt for Ed de Giles
   NP 17% vs IP 18% • Trainer RTF% 33

Verdict: Tommytwohoots has turned a corner and looks a runner here. Roman Spring is a previous course scorer. Autumn Festival is joint-favourite territory and obvious on paper.

16:25 Bath — BetWright Safer Gambling Handicap

5f10y • Class 6 • 11 runners • Overround 108%

1. Sub Thirteen (#3) — Form 6-64614 — William Carson for Tony Carroll
   NP 27% vs IP 26% • Trainer RTF% 55
2. Call Time (#6) — Form 2123464p — Jason Watson for J S Moore
   NP 12% vs IP 13% • Trainer RTF% 50
3. Lahina Bay (#9) — Form 3309435 — Rhys Clutterbuck for Rachel Cook & John Bridger
   NP 11% vs IP 12% • Trainer RTF% 67

Verdict: Sub Thirteen is a recent course winner off a workable mark. Call Time is reliable. Lahina Bay is still unexposed.

⭐ Nap of the Meeting: Kiss And Run (#5)

Race: 14:55 Bath — Class 5, 5f160y, Soft
Why the Nap:

• Weighted to reverse previous form
• Positive Value signal (NP edges IP)
• Conditions line up perfectly today

This is the “most likely winning scenario” according to the model. Back with confidence.