Bet Smart & Win — Dundalk Race Preview
Friday 31 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Overround (their margin) against them to uncover the True Fair Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: Donnacha Aidan O’Brien
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Short-priced fav
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Highest-rated on known form off Listed company. Clear ability but model says Below Fair on price.
Details
- J: Jack Cleary
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Likely 2nd fav
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Power yard, strong profile. Also Below Fair at current market but main threat.
Details
- J: Ronan Whelan
- T: Jarlath P Fahey
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Each-way price
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid ability and could nick a place behind the big two at a fair price.
Details
- J: Killian Leonard
- T: Miss Katy Brown
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Competitive single-figures
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Narrow C&D defeat recently; model grades Above Fair and expects him to go close.
Details
- J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy
- T: Patrick J Flynn
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Single-figures off penalty
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Recent C&D winner. Still Above Fair even with the penalty. Must respect.
Details
- J: Jimmy Dalton
- T: Andrew Slattery
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Double-figures EW
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent profile and holding form. Live each-way chance at value.
Details
- J: Jack Kearney
- T: Stephen Thorne
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Likely double-figures EW
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Down in grade and already a C&D scorer. Screams Above Fair for value players.
Details
- J: Wayne Hassett
- T: Edward Lynam
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Each-way price
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Well-handicapped and shaped well last time. Major danger and still value.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: Stephen Thorne
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Towards head of market
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Class edge and trainer in form. On all figures he’s a proper win chance.
Details
- J: Gary Carroll
- T: G M Lyons
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Likely favourite
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Rock-solid maiden form in stronger races. Above Fair and expected to finally convert.
Details
- J: Jack Cleary
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Strong single-figures
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Big yard, proper ability. Main danger and still priced Above Fair.
Details
- J: Ronan Whelan
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Each-way bracket
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Still learning. Connections alone keep him firmly in the frame for a place.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: Stephen Thorne
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Mid-range single-figures
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent profile and gelded; looks ready to hit peak. Above Fair.
Details
- J: Donagh O’Connor
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Favourite bracket
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent and still Above Fair. Model says he’s entitled to be near top of market.
Details
- J: Patrick McGettigan
- T: Anthony McCann
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Solid each-way zone
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
High enough class rating to land a blow. Should be there at the business end.
Details
- J: Ross Coakley
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Strong single-figures / may shorten
- Overround: 107%
Profile: recent course win, likely pace control, handicap mark may still be lenient.
Analysis
This is the standout value play of the entire card. NP comfortably ahead of IP at a fair book (107%). Front-running set-up looks perfect.
Details
- J: Sean Davis
- T: Ian Patrick Donoghue
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Single-figures after last win
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Recent winner and proven C&D. Rock-solid frame claims.
Details
- J: Donagh O’Connor
- T: John C McConnell
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Each-way bracket
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
High enough class rating for this grade, and should be finishing late. Solid EW angle.
Details
- J: Wayne Hassett
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Short single-figures
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Cesarewitch form reads well and this is easier. Looks well in. Above Fair.
Details
- J: Robert Whearty
- T: Noel Meade
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Each-way price
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Comes here in great nick (both codes). Still priced Above Fair. Very solid EW.
Details
- J: Keithen Kennedy
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Odds: Each-way zone
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Holds one of the best raw class ratings in the field and goes well here. In the mix.
Analysis
Front-running profile, recent course win, and NP (36%) comfortably ahead of IP (33%) in a 107% book. This is the clearest pricing edge on the card. Back with confidence.
Details
- Race: Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (8:00)
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer: Adrian McGuinness
- Trainer RTF%: Data Unavailable
- Jockey: Ross Coakley
- Odds: Strong single-figures, could shorten
- Overround: 107%