Bet Smart & Win — Uttoxeter Race Preview
Friday 31 October 2025 • Full Card • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class: 4
Analysis
The clear market leader with the highest Normalized Probability. Strong bumper form and rated Above Fair.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class: 4
Analysis
Solid profile from a yard that places mares well. NP comfortably clears IP = value edge.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class: 4
Analysis
Fair proposition for place money. NP and IP sit close together = priced about right.
Details
- J: Jack Hogan
- T: Gary Hanmer
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
- Class: 5
Analysis
Model top pick in a messy 16-runner handicap. Above Fair with NP well clear of IP.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
- Class: 5
Analysis
Still lightly raced over fences. NP > IP gives him a positive value lean.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Harriet Dickin
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
- Class: 5
Analysis
Already a chase winner. Fair rating from the model and respected in a big field.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class: 4
Analysis
Chepstow bumper form reads well. Model calls him Above Fair — standout in Div I.
Details
- J: Nico de Boinville
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class: 4
Analysis
Comes from a powerful operation. NP > IP → priced acceptably, Fair.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class: 4
Analysis
Honest yardstick and fits into the model’s first three, but slightly behind the front two on upside.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
- Class: 4
Analysis
Clear top selection for Div II. Ends last season in form, now returns Above Fair.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
- Class: 4
Analysis
Irish point winner from a high-percentage yard. NP > IP gives a value cushion.
Details
- J: Nico de Boinville
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
- Class: 4
Analysis
Third string of the market but still lands on the shortlist. Fair.
Details
- J: Alex Chadwick
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class: 4
Analysis
Joint favourite on the tissue. Above Fair with best NP in the race.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class: 4
Analysis
Shares favouritism and is well within value range. Strong player for places/win.
Details
- J: Charlie Hammond
- T: Stuart Edmunds
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class: 4
Analysis
Still improving with experience. Fair value and one to include underneath.
Details
- J: Dylan Johnston
- T: Sam Thomas
- Trip: 1m7f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
- Class: 3
Analysis
Best hurdles form in the line-up. Model has him Above Fair and on top.
Details
- J: Tom Cannon
- T: Lucy Wadham
- Trip: 1m7f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
- Class: 3
Analysis
Needs to fence cleanly but NP > IP points to value. Danger to Lump Sum.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 1m7f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
- Class: 3
Analysis
Respected yard. Fair value rather than screaming edge, but in the three.
Details
- J: Charlie Todd
- T: Charles & Adam Pogson
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class: 5
Analysis
Progressive C&D horse. Highest NP on the card. Model Nap of the Meeting.
Details
- J: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
- T: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class: 5
Analysis
Clear danger. Probability profile says he’s a threat but still Above Fair, not Below.
Details
- J: Jack Andrews
- T: T Ellis
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
- Class: 5
Analysis
Profile says “there or thereabouts.” Fair value and credible for places.
Details
- J: Harry Atkins
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 1m7f168y (NH Flat)
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
- Class: 5
Analysis
Well-bred newcomer heading the market. Above Fair and on top for the bumper.
Details
- J: Paddy Hanlon
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 1m7f168y (NH Flat)
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
- Class: 5
Analysis
High-profile yard debutante. NP sits well clear of IP → positive value signal.
Details
- J: Fern O’Brien
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 1m7f168y (NH Flat)
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
- Class: 5
Analysis
Experience angle. Fair value and projects as the “solid each-way” in the bumper.
Analysis
Progressive for the stable, strong C&D profile, NP (33%) comfortably above IP (30%), and sits in that sweet Class 5 / sub-115% Overround window. This is the “run-that-wins” scenario on the card.