Bet Smart & Win — Wetherby Race Preview
Friday 31 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Fergal O’Brien
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m3f85y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 10/11
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Reached a level over hurdles to suggest he could be one of the better British novice chasers this season.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m3f85y
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: 11/10
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Strong contender but faces a tough opponent in Sixmilebridge. Respectable chance.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m3f154y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: 2/5
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
The best of these in bumpers; probably ran into a good horse on hurdling debut. This looks his race to lose.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Kevin Pickard
- Trip: 2m3f154y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: 11/4
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Main danger to the favorite; should improve for the step up in trip.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Chris Grant
- Trip: 2m3f154y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: 8/1
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Needs significant improvement to trouble the principals in this field.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Christian Williams
- Trip: 2m3f154y
- Trainer RTF%: 8%
- Odds: 6/4
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
On a good mark and hit the ground running last term. The one to beat in this handicap.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 2m3f154y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 5/2
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Strong contender who should be in the mix; main danger to the favorite.
Details
- J: Peter Kavanagh
- T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
- Trip: 2m3f154y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Respectable chance but needs to find improvement against the top two.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: 2/5
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Was the best of these on the Flat and goes unpenalised for winning two juvenile hurdles. Difficult to get away from.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: 9/2
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Main danger to the favorite; should be respected from this yard.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: 11/2
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Respectable contender but faces a tough task against the favorite.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m3f85y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: Evs
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Might set this up for a late player; strong chance in competitive handicap.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Deborah Cole
- Trip: 2m3f85y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Strong contender who could benefit from the pace setup; serious danger.
Details
- J: Tom Broughton
- T: Nick Kent
- Trip: 2m3f85y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: 10/1
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Ended last season in excellent form; could play a role at a price.
Details
- J: Jamie Hamilton
- T: Mark Walford
- Trip: 2m5f56y
- Trainer RTF%: 14%
- Odds: 13/8
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
The penalised Princesse Milania showed improved form to win at Plumpton and can make a successful stable debut.
Details
- J: Tom Broughton
- T: Nick Kent
- Trip: 2m5f56y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Respectable contender but needs to find improvement against the favorite.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: Jennie Candlish
- Trip: 2m5f56y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: 6/1
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Solid each-way chance in competitive handicap.
Details
- J: Charlie Maggs
- T: Adam Nicol
- Trip: 2m5f56y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Preference is for the 4yo who pulled clear with an in-form winner at Carlisle. Strong Above Fair value rating.
Details
- J: Callum Pritchard
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m5f56y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: 3/1
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
The forecast favourite and main threat; longer trip now handicapping likely to be beneficial.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: Jennie Candlish
- Trip: 2m5f56y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: 4/1
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Progressive type carrying top weight; comes into the race following a recent win, making it a key contender.
Analysis
Strong Above Fair value rating, ideal race conditions (Class 5, Good going), positive form trajectory with a win and a close second in recent runs, and favourable expert analysis. This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.