Bet Smart & Win — Ayr Race Preview
Saturday 1 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 2m
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Short-priced favourite off an impressive bumper win. Value is limited but clear 1st pick.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Same yard as #8; strong second tier behind the favourite.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Third-best on the figures; good for Placepot coverage.
Details
- J: Craig Nichol
- T: Donald Whillans
- Trip: 3m20y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Narrow favourite; proven in similar handicaps; stays well.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 3m20y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Respected coming off a break; strong yard; must go on soft.
Details
- J: Bruce Lynn
- T: N W Alexander
- Trip: 3m20y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent profile; likes these staying chases; solid each-way.
Details
- J: Jamie Hamilton
- T: Ruth Jefferson
- Trip: 3m70y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Justified favourite; hard to knock on recent form; small field is only negative.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 3m70y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Unexposed over this longer trip and is the nap in the source notes — strong win case.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 3m70y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Another viable staying hurdle option from the top Scottish yard.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m4f110y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent and likely to improve again over fences. Solid selection.
Details
- J: Dylan Johnston
- T: Jackie Stephen
- Trip: 2m4f110y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Market-leader profile; if jumping holds, big run expected.
Details
- J: William Maggs
- T: Mickey Bowen
- Trip: 2m4f110y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Comes here in form; handles conditions; viable top-3 candidate.
Details
- J: Craig Nichol
- T: Ruth Jefferson
- Trip: 2m
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Unexposed last-time-out winner; scope for more; solid favourite.
Details
- J: Ben Smith
- T: R Mike Smith
- Trip: 2m
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Reliable handicapping type; should be very close on these terms.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Adrian Paul Keatley
- Trip: 2m
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Well-found in the market; good jockey booking; place chance.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: N W Alexander
- Trip: 2m110y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Transferring good hurdle form to fences; strong claims.
Details
- J: Craig Nichol
- T: Adrian Paul Keatley
- Trip: 2m110y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Narrow market leader; reliable sort; obvious claims.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 2m110y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Very little splits the top three — race to watch, not force.
Details
- J: Joe Williamson
- T: Philip Kirby
- Trip: 3m70y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Back to a winnable mark; profile type for this kind of Ayr handicap.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: Martin Todhunter
- Trip: 3m70y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Clear 2nd favourite; strong jockey booking; handles conditions.
Details
- J: Ryan Mania
- T: Adam Nicol
- Trip: 3m70y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Recent winner; right sort to run into the frame again.
Analysis
Unexposed over 3m70y, comes from the right yard, and this race profile (Class 3, Soft, 7 runners, 111% book) is the cleanest betting setup on the card. This is the “run-that-wins” scenario from today’s Ayr model. Back with confidence.
Details
- Race: 1:58 — United Council Of Racecourse Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle
- Trip: 3m70y
- Going: Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%