Bet Smart & Win — Down Royal Race Preview
Saturday 01 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 8/11
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Short-priced favourite with commanding normalized probability, making it the most likely winner despite below fair value.
Details
- J: Philip Byrnes
- T: William Durkan
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Offers some value as normalized probability is close to implied chance. Solid contender for places.
Details
- J: Jordan Gainford
- T: Cian Collins
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: 11/2
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Rounds out the top three based on form and probability. Above fair value makes her interesting.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 4/7
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Clear top pick based on high normalized probability and powerful connections despite below fair value.
Details
- J: Sam Ewing
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 13/2
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Another from the Elliott yard with solid chance. Fair value makes him a credible alternative.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: 15/2
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Represents a credible threat from a top yard to complete the trifecta. Fair value proposition.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 15/8
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Has the highest normalized probability but below fair value. Market leader for hurdles debut.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: John E & Thomas Kiely
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: 5/2
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Offers superior value as normalized probability is higher than implied. Top bumper performer worth another chance.
Details
- J: Danny Gilligan
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Third contender from the strong Elliott stable. Above fair value makes her an interesting each-way proposition.
Details
- J: Mr J H Williamson
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Favourite and most probable winner. Fair value makes him the logical choice in competitive handicap.
Details
- J: Niall Moore
- T: Philip Fenton
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 11/1
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Selected for value profile and potential for improvement. Ground versatile and should improve from seasonal return.
Details
- J: Simon Torrens
- T: Eoin Christopher McCarthy
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: 13/2
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Has consistent form and a fair chance to place. Represents solid each-way value in competitive race.
Details
- J: Simon Torrens
- T: William P Murphy
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: 15/2
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Nap selection and previous C&D winner, offering a fair price. Taken to turn Fairyhouse form around.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: 9/2
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Market leader with the highest win probability. Consistent performer who should be in the mix.
Details
- J: Eoin Staples
- T: J P Dempsey
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 83%
- Odds: 11/2
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Key rival based on recent form. Should be competitive in this handicap chase.
Details
- J: Sam Ewing
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 100/30
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Value selection against more established rivals, with conditions in his favour. Novice with strong potential.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: 9/4
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Class act and marginal favourite. Proven Grade 1 performer who commands respect.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: James Joseph Mangan
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: 11/4
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Top novice with a strong chance. Should be competitive in this Grade 1 contest.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m3f120y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 5/6
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Unbeaten C&D winner and strong favourite with the highest probability. Taken to maintain unbeaten record here.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m3f120y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: 11/4
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Main danger from a top yard. Should give the favourite most to think about.
Details
- J: Danny Gilligan
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m3f120y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Completes the shortlist for the powerful Elliott stable. Should run respectably in this Grade 2.
Details
- J: Mr J H Williamson
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 6/4
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Market leader with the highest win probability. Elliott runner with strong credentials.
Details
- J: Mr J M Halford
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 9/4
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Stablemate with strong credentials and is the selection for value. Narrow preference in competitive bumper.
Details
- J: Conor Clarke
- T: A J Martin
- Trip: 2m190y
- Trainer RTF%: 23%
- Odds: 9/2
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Most credible of the remaining runners. Should be competitive in this amateur riders event.
Analysis
Course and Distance winner, favourable handicap mark, key contender in a competitive race. This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.