Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Tuesday 21 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m4f198y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Market leader. Above Fair value with the strongest NP vs IP spread.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m4f198y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Solid Above Fair profile, second in confidence.
Details
- J: Craig Nichol
- T: Sandy Thomson
- Trip: 2m4f198y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Profiles as Above Fair and a place player.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m3f218y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Clear favourite. Above Fair value and main win projection.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m3f218y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Second favourite. Above Fair, projected to pressure the jolly.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: Stuart Coltherd
- Trip: 2m3f218y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Fair value contender for the frame.
Details
- J: Tom Cannon
- T: Lucy Wadham
- Trip: 2m3f210y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Strong Listed-class mare. Above Fair and first pick.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Faye Bramley
- Trip: 2m3f210y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Main danger. NP comfortably above IP gives Above Fair rating.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m3f210y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Honest. Fair value in a small field, projects as third best.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m3f218y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Favourite. Above Fair and projects the win.
Details
- J: Jack Hogan
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m3f218y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Strong second favourite. Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m3f218y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Fair value. Place chance if the top two underperform.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m3f210y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Short-priced, Above Fair favourite. Expects to win.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m3f210y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Clear second best. Above Fair and the forecast horse.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 2m3f210y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Fair value, projects as the third runner in the frame.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 3m2f19y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Market leader. Above Fair and the one they have to beat.
Details
- J: Callum Bewley
- T: Martin Todhunter
- Trip: 3m2f19y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Tight handicap. Above Fair and main threat.
Details
- J: Charlie Deutsch
- T: Mel Rowley
- Trip: 3m2f19y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Above Fair as well. A logical place player.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Strong favourite. Above Fair and model nap of the card.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Ann Hamilton
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Above Fair second pick, rates the danger.
Details
- J: Patrick Wadge
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: –%
- Odds (Forecast): n/a
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Fair value, flagged as a nap candidate for place money.
Analysis
28% NP vs 25% IP with Sean Bowen booked, in a Class 4, 14-runner handicap at a manageable overround (112%). This is the clearest Above Fair edge on the Carlisle card. Back with confidence.