Bet Smart & Win — Wolverhampton Race Preview
Tuesday 04 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: Ian Williams
- Trip: 1m4f51y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Top selection on value; consistent in this grade and profile suits C&D.
Details
- J: Mason Paetel
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m4f51y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Solid forecast pick; unexposed at trip and fits the model well.
Details
- J: Donagh Murphy
- T: Mark Loughnane
- Trip: 1m4f51y
- Trainer RTF%: 18%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Dangerous C&D winner on workable mark; each-way player.
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: Ivan Furtado
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Progressive sprinter; hat-trick bid looks on; ticks value boxes.
Details
- J: Conor Orr
- T: Fionn McSharry
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
In superb form; penalty to defy but model still respects.
Details
- J: Laura Pearson
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent operator; should be thereabouts again.
Details
- J: Lillie Dingle
- T: Dylan Cunha
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Clear top on value; sharp nursery profile and ideally placed.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Harry Eustace
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Unexposed; strong claims if improving again.
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: Alice Haynes
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Reliable; meets top two on worse terms but holds place chance.
Details
- J: Stevie Donohoe
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 7f36y
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Sets the standard; experience edge and strong yard signals.
Details
- J: Dougie Costello
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 7f36y
- Trainer RTF%: 79%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Top stable; debut profile strong—major player.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Owen Burrows
- Trip: 7f36y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Interesting newcomer; respected but fav sets bar.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m1f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Blue-blood from top yard; taken to score.
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m1f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Experience angle; can give stablemate most to do.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m1f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 79%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Consistent; place chance in small field.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m4f51y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Back to AW on winning mark; strong value signal.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m4f51y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Forecast fav; lightly raced and progressive.
Details
- J: Rob Hornby
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m4f51y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
C&D winner; respected each-way.
Details
- J: Darragh Keenan
- T: Charlie Clover
- Trip: 1m142y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Narrowly denied LTO; strong chance to go one better.
Details
- J: Taryn Langley
- T: Kevin Philippart De Foy
- Trip: 1m142y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent filly; leading yard; solid contender.
Details
- J: Phoebe Edwards
- T: Ross Burdon
- Trip: 1m142y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Back to C&D; fair each-way angle.
Details
- J: Jack Doughty
- T: Tony Carroll
- Trip: 1m1f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Five-time course winner; well treated; strong value angle.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 1m1f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Arrives in winning form; leading chance on figures.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: James Ferguson
- Trip: 1m1f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent; likely to be in the mix.
Analysis
Strong normalized value, improving nursery profile, ideal 5f conditions. Back with confidence.
Details
- Race: Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk Nursery Handicap (3:52)
- Trip: 5f21y • Going: Standard
- Overround: 107%