Bet Smart & Win — Warwick Race Preview
Tuesday 04 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Clear form pick and likely market leader; NP>IP flags Above Fair value at this overround.
Details
- J: Ben Poste
- T: Archie Watson
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid Flat base; model rates the price profile as best-value alternative to the fav.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Place claims on profile; sits in the Fair band but still NP≥IP.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m3f
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Even-money type; leading chance with clear AF edge on our line.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m3f
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Recent winner; some risks but still priced on the fair side.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Emma Lavelle
- Trip: 2m3f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Depth thin; respectable third pick with NP in line with price.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Narrow fav; strong yard; AF classification on our tissue.
Details
- J: Kielan Woods
- T: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Danger if jumping holds; sits fairly vs tissue.
Details
- J: Mr Jamie Neild
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Closes shortlist; price aligned to chance.
Details
- J: Alex Chadwick
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Top of our tissue; NP cushion over IP supports AF tag.
Details
- J: Bryan Carver
- T: Alex Hales
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent type; NP in fair zone keeps him competitive.
Details
- J: David Bass
- T: Max Comley
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Fresh winner; profile still looks Above Fair at tissue.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Winning chase debut; longer trip should suit; AF at current tissue.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid second pick; Fair valuation with scope to outrun odds.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Tom George
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Top-weight; completes the three with Fair price-to-chance.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Henry Daly
- Trip: 3m1f100y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Favoured on past chase efforts; AF margin modest but meaningful.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: David Dennis
- Trip: 3m1f100y
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Clear second pick on our numbers; AF value persists at current quotes.
Details
- J: Sean Houlihan
- T: Sheila Lewis
- Trip: 3m1f100y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Completes the three; price roughly fair to our line.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Nicky Martin
- Trip: 2m5f5y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Marginal fav; Above Fair on our tissue; strong shortlist pick.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Henry Daly
- Trip: 2m5f5y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Solid C&D claims; best-value profile of the alternatives.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m5f5y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Strong contender; sits in Fair zone on our line.
Analysis
Winning chase debut; step up to 2m4f expected to suit; top connections; NP>IP with book at 108% gives Above Fair edge. Back with confidence.
Details
- Race: Jets Richard Davis Awards 30th Anniversary Handicap Chase (GBB) — 3:02
- Trip: 2m4f • Going: Good • Class 4 • Runners: 8
- J: Harry Skelton • T: Dan Skelton • Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%