Bet Smart & Win — Dundalk Race Preview
Wednesday 05 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: Michael Mulvany
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Heads our tissue with a positive NP>IP edge.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Denis Gerard Hogan
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Clear 2nd pick; strong value profile.
Details
- J: Alan Casey
- T: Denis Gerard Hogan
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Third slot; retains a notable NP–IP gap.
Details
- J: Jack Cleary
- T: M C Grassick
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Sets the standard; material NP>IP edge.
Details
- J: Luke McAteer
- T: David Marnane
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Main danger; robust value.
Details
- J: Keithen Kennedy
- T: Yvonne Latta
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid third pick; clear NP over IP.
Details
- J: N G McCullagh
- T: Gerard O’Leary
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Narrow tissue fav; value holds.
Details
- J: Julian Pietropaolo
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Clear alternative; NP advantage.
Details
- J: Jack Kearney
- T: Patrick T Foley
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent; completes the trio.
Details
- J: J M Sheridan
- T: Denis Gerard Hogan
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Top pick; retains value even at 114% book.
Details
- J: Adam Caffrey
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Rapidly improving; value persists.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: James M Barrett
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Figures say competitive; each-way value.
Details
- J: Adam Caffrey
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Top of our figures; retains AF value.
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: Eddie & Patrick Harty
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Recent uplift; strong contender.
Details
- J: Emily Grifferty
- T: Noel Meade
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Reliable placer; holds value.
Details
- J: Jack Cleary
- T: Gerard O’Leary
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Back on AW; standout value.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Stephen Thorne
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent; danger to the top pick.
Details
- J: Declan McDonogh
- T: Ciaran Murphy
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Strong NP–IP spread; shortlist material.
Details
- J: Jack Cleary
- T: Conor O’Dwyer
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 116%
Analysis
C&D record strong; most likely winner on our tissue.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: Matthew J Smith
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 116%
Analysis
Primary danger; retains AF value.
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: Noel Meade
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 116%
Analysis
Figures solid; strong place chance.
Details
- J: Sam Coen
- T: Andrew Slattery
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 115%
Analysis
Narrow top on NP; ready to strike.
Details
- J: Luke McAteer
- T: C Byrnes
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 115%
Analysis
Main danger; fair value.
Details
- J: N G McCullagh
- T: A J Martin
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 115%
Analysis
Improving; frame claims with value.
Analysis
Material NP > IP edge in a 12-runner field; proven form at the trip on Standard going.
Details
- Race: Celebrate Your Special Occasion Median Auction Maiden
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%