Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Thursday 06 November 2025 • Analysis • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m 5y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Top connections; most likely winner on form. Small field reduces variance.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 1m 5y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Solid profile; fair value around market top. Main danger.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m 5y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
C&D winner; model finds above-fair value at current prices.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: James Fanshawe
- Trip: 7f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Up in trip should help; value edge on our numbers.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: William Knight
- Trip: 7f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Solid claims; fairly priced; big player for places.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: James Ferguson
- Trip: 7f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 17%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Recent winner; still unexposed. Fair price to go close.
Details
- J: Cam Hardie
- T: Antony Brittain
- Trip: 1m 2f 42y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Recent C&D winner; thriving; the one to beat.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Harry Charlton
- Trip: 1m 2f 42y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Progressing; big yard; strong place claims.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: Mark Loughnane
- Trip: 1m 2f 42y
- Trainer RTF%: 15%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Reliable; correctly priced; solid for exotics.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 7f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Well-bred and expected to know her job; debut win chance.
Details
- J: Pierre-Louis Jamin
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 7f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Improving filly; main danger to the fav.
Details
- J: George Downing
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 7f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Shown ability; likely involved in finish.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 1m 5y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Well-bred; stable excels with juveniles; leading chance.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Charles Hills
- Trip: 1m 5y
- Trainer RTF%: 79%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Strong improvement angle; above-fair on our line.
Details
- J: George Downing
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 1m 5y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Winner already; slightly under fair at current odds.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: John & Sean Quinn
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Visor helped last time; drop to 5f looks ideal; live chance.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent and a C&D winner; obvious threat.
Details
- J: Kaiya Fraser
- T: Ruth Carr
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Proven at level; fairly priced favourite-type.
Details
- J: Mark Winn
- T: David Thompson
- Trip: 1m 5y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Good recent C&D run vs subsequent dual winner; value angle.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: David Thompson
- Trip: 1m 5y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent C&D winner; obvious danger; fairly priced.
Details
- J: Andrea Pinna
- T: Joey Ramsden
- Trip: 1m 5y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Competitive mark; each-way squeak.
Details
- J: James Sullivan
- T: Ruth Carr
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Falling mark; recent run better than result; player.
Details
- J: Andrew Mullen
- T: Ben Haslam
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent; fair market leader; big chance.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: David Thompson
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
C&D winner; above-fair at current quotes.
Details
- J: Ryan Sexton
- T: Julie Camacho
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 24%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Good 5f effort; 3lb above OR; still the one to beat.
Details
- J: Tom Eaves
- T: Michael Dods
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 23%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Shrewd yard; each-way claims at prices.
Details
- J: Andrea Pinna
- T: Joey Ramsden
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Recent winner; can be involved again; fair value.
Analysis
Recent C&D winner in form; conditions ideal; model’s strongest alignment today.