Bet Smart & Win — Kelso Race Preview
Saturday 08 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the strongest value-backed runners in each race, ranked in order of confidence. Secondary selections are included to support Win, Each-Way & Place multiples.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: J J Slevin
- T: John C McConnell
- Trip: 2m 6f 151y
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: ~11/8
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Impressive Irish novice winner; step up in trip on softening ground suits on pedigree and SecEff-J. Fluent jumper with strong NP>IP edge. Above Fair.
Details
- J: Bruce Lynn
- T: N W Alexander
- Trip: 2m 6f 151y
- Trainer RTF%: 14%
- Odds: ~7/4
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Upwardly mobile last term, proven under similar conditions; solid SecEff-J. Fair value against the Irish mare.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Mickey Bowen
- Trip: 2m 6f 151y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: ~11/2
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Stays well and SecEff-J suggests improvement back up in trip. Fair value as a stalking option behind the principals.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 1f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: ~3/1
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Soft-ground chase winner with strong course profile; SecEff-J marks him as a closer with upside. Above Fair.
Details
- J: Alice Stevens
- T: Micky Hammond
- Trip: 2m 1f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: ~6/1
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
All wins with cut; aggressive style suits. Fair value despite weight burden.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m 1f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: ~5/1
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
French form and workable mark; some jumping concerns, but Fair at the prices.
Details
- J: Ryan Mania
- T: Gary Rutherford
- Trip: 2m 4f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: ~5/1
- Overround: 109.2%
Analysis
Staying profile; SecEff-J flags strong late work. Above Fair in a winnable heat.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 2m 4f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: ~11/4
- Overround: 109.2%
Analysis
Conditions ideal; solid hurdler with course form. Fair at current mark.
Details
- J: Jamie Hamilton
- T: Gillian Boanas
- Trip: 2m 4f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: ~7/2
- Overround: 109.2%
Analysis
Soft-ground scorer with staying profile; Above Fair as a live outsider.
Details
- J: Callum Bewley
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 2m 4f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: ~3/1
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
C&D winner; SecEff-J and profile scream suitability. Above Fair; clear standard.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 4f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: ~9/2
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Soft-ground form solid; extra trip looks a plus. Fair; solid place angle.
Details
- J: Jamie Hamilton
- T: Gillian Boanas
- Trip: 2m 4f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: ~5/1
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Stays well and keeps finding; Fair value to hit the frame.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 4f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: Each-way range
- Overround: 112.1%
Analysis
French form and mark hint at upside; Above Fair in a deep handicap. EW with 4 places.
Details
- J: Peter Kavanagh
- T: Dianne Sayer
- Trip: 2m 4f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: Value EW band
- Overround: 112.1%
Analysis
Relishes a test; strong SecEff-J; Above Fair with place claims.
Details
- J: Dominic Hislop
- T: N W Alexander
- Trip: 2m 4f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 14%
- Odds: In-form; shortener
- Overround: 112.1%
Analysis
Thriving and efficient late; Above Fair despite penalty.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 7f 96y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: Value EW
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
C&D scorer; well-treated if blinkers spark revival. Above Fair.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 7f 96y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: Contender
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Stays strongly; profiles as grinder. Fair; key danger.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: N W Alexander
- Trip: 2m 7f 96y
- Trainer RTF%: 14%
- Odds: Track specialist
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
C&D winner with strong SecEff-J here; Fair and respected.
Details
- J: Shane Fenelon
- T: Mickey Bowen
- Trip: 2m 7f 96y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: Market leader
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Soft-ground winner, proven stayer, dominant SecEff-J last time. NP>IP and profile aligned: standout Above Fair.
Details
- J: Charlie Maggs
- T: Dianne Sayer
- Trip: 2m 7f 96y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: EW player
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Soft-ground profile; shapes like a stayer. Fair value.
Details
- J: Jamie Hamilton
- T: Sandy Thomson
- Trip: 2m 7f 96y
- Trainer RTF%: 23%
- Odds: Stout stayer
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Falling mark and stamina credentials; Fair value to grab a share.
Analysis
Proven soft-ground stayer with a dominant recent win, strong SecEff-J, improved jumping and a clear NP>IP edge in a fair overround band. This is the “run-that-wins” scenario on the Kelso card. Back with confidence.