Bet Smart & Win — Gowran Park Race Preview
Saturday 8 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Trip: 2m
- Odds (IP): 5.49
- Overround: 108.3%
Analysis
Progressive mare from a top yard; heavy-ground profile suggests a major run if jumping holds.
Details
- J: Keith Donoghue
- T: Ian Patrick Donoghue
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Trip: 2m
- Odds (IP): 3.50
- Overround: 108.3%
Analysis
Top hurdles form; if taking to fences, sets the standard at broadly fair odds.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Trip: 2m
- Odds (IP): 9.01
- Overround: 108.3%
Analysis
Ability in the book but slight negative on value given profile and previous fall.
Details
- J: Harry Sexton
- T: P A Fahy
- Trainer RTF%: 18%
- Trip: 2m4f
- Odds (IP): 7.69
- Overround: 114.8%
Analysis
Stays and handles conditions; small value negative with margin baked in.
Details
- J: Keith Donoghue
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Trip: 2m4f
- Odds (IP): 5.49
- Overround: 114.8%
Analysis
Reliable mare; strong completion record makes her a solid play in a chaotic heat.
Details
- J: Tiernan Power Roche
- T: P J Rothwell
- Trainer RTF%: 37%
- Trip: 2m4f
- Odds (IP): 9.01
- Overround: 114.8%
Analysis
Mixed profile; more of an each-way flyer than a value core pick.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Trip: 2m
- Odds (IP): 2.90
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Graded form and heavy-ground suitability; clear class but market slightly overplays his edge.
Details
- J: Brian Hayes
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Trip: 2m
- Odds (IP): 3.80
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Mud-lover with C&D credentials; rightly prominent in the tissue.
Details
- J: Eoin Staples
- T: Patrick T Foley
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Trip: 2m
- Odds (IP): 9.01
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Tough and honest; figures say slightly shy of true value at current odds.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Trip: 2m20y
- Odds (IP): 5.99
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Promising; stable strength respected, though bookmakers have trimmed margin.
Details
- J: Keith Donoghue
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Trip: 2m20y
- Odds (IP): 4.50
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Rock-solid bumper form; sits around fair on current tissues.
Details
- J: Sean Flanagan
- T: Barry Connell
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Trip: 2m20y
- Odds (IP): 4.50
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Well-touted debutant; model grants a small value edge versus market.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Trip: 2m20y
- Odds (IP): 1.80
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Strong favourite; IP now exceeds NP, flashing a clear red-zone caution on value.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: J P Dempsey
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Trip: 2m20y
- Odds (IP): 6.99
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Consistent without winning; market slightly ahead of his true chance.
Details
- J: Danny Gilligan
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Trip: 2m20y
- Odds (IP): 14.93
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Lightly raced filly; could be a sneaky each-way if market drifts.
Details
- J: Sean O’Keeffe
- T: Paul Nolan
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Trip: 2m20y
- Odds (IP): 8.00
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Competent bumper performer; appeals as one of several fair-priced contenders.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: Patrick J Flynn
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Trip: 2m20y
- Odds (IP): 6.49
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Solid credentials; model keeps him onside without screaming value.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Trip: 2m20y
- Odds (IP): 4.50
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Grade 2 bumper ability; has the engine but is priced accordingly.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Trip: 2m20y
- Odds (IP): 3.25
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Well treated on form; narrow margin between fair and fully baked-in.
Details
- J: Mike O’Connor
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Trip: 2m20y
- Odds (IP): 4.00
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
C&D winner; upward curve but again priced right on the line.
Details
- J: Daniel King
- T: M A Molloy
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Trip: 2m20y
- Odds (IP): 5.99
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Handicap mark workable; one to consider against the better-known yards.
Details
- J: Shane O’Callaghan
- T: Alan Donoghue
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Trip: 2m3f180y
- Odds (IP): 11.49
- Overround: 115.0%
Analysis
Course specialist; stands out as an each-way play with AF tag despite high overround.
Details
- J: Brian Hayes
- T: W P Mullins
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Trip: 2m3f180y
- Odds (IP): 4.50
- Overround: 115.0%
Analysis
Strong profile mare; priced efficiently given yard and current form.
Details
- J: Sean O’Keeffe
- T: Colin Bowe
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Trip: 2m3f180y
- Odds (IP): 7.69
- Overround: 115.0%
Analysis
Recent winner; slightly cramped odds relative to NP.
Analysis
Nap of the Meeting – Graded form, proven on heavy, and an in-form De Bromhead yard. The “run-that-wins” scenario is strong, albeit with the caveat that IP has pushed beyond NP, marking him as a confidence pick rather than pure value.