Bet Smart & Win — Doncaster Race Preview
Saturday 8 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Jack Nicholls
- T: Mark Walford
- Trip: 7f 6y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Solid value with NP > IP; proven in the ground and class; primary contender.
Details
- J: Mason Paetel
- T: Michael Appleby
- Trip: 7f 6y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Recent win, handles conditions; fair value and a strong place candidate.
Details
- J: Conor Whiteley
- T: Brian Ellison
- Trip: 7f 6y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
C&D form and heavy-ground suitability; fair value in a deep field.
Details
- J: Cam Hardie
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Clear form pick; NP comfortably ahead of IP, marking strong Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Progressive profile; Above Fair mark and ideal fit for conditions.
Details
- J: Shane Gray
- T: William Stone
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid, experienced; fair value with place claims.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Strongly-backed newcomer from a top yard; NP>IP boosts Above Fair status.
Details
- J: Shane Gray
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Powerful connections; Above Fair on debut numbers; major player.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Harry Charlton
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Top combination; sits on the fair line; respected.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Class drop and ground swing the balance; standout Above Fair proposition.
Details
- J: Pierre-Louis Jamin
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Mud-lover with C&D credentials; Above Fair and a key threat.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: P Charalambous & J Clutterbuck
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent in strong handicaps; fair value stepping into Listed grade.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: David Menuisier
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Unexposed and expected to progress; Above Fair at current quotes.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Form standard-setter; fair rather than standout value.
Details
- J: Oisin McSweeney
- T: Adrian Paul Keatley
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Comes here on a win; Above Fair profile in this setup.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Hamad Al Jehani
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
On a sharp upward curve; Above Fair rating underpins hat-trick bid.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Profile screams class; Above Fair despite short price; leading chance.
Details
- J: Mark Winn
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 6f 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
C&D winner with suitable style; fair value with place upside.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m 2f 43y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Brings Group form to Listed company; standout Above Fair anchor in this field.
Details
- J: Kevin Stott
- T: Saeed bin Suroor
- Trip: 1m 2f 43y
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Competitive in strong races; Above Fair value in these conditions.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m 2f 43y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent and well-suited; Above Fair edge keeps her firmly in calculations.
Details
- J: Jack Dace
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m 3f 197y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Last year’s winner with ideal conditions; model’s clear Above Fair cornerstone.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 1m 3f 197y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Progressive three-year-old; Above Fair rating and tailor-made test.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m 3f 197y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Arrives on a win; fair value but slightly tighter than the top two.
Analysis
Last year’s winner with identical conditions and an Above Fair rating. Profile, track craft and heavy-ground efficiency align to create the strongest “run-that-wins” scenario on the card.