Bet Smart & Win — Ffos Las Race Preview
Sunday 09 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: 7/4 (2.75)
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Proven soft-ground ability from bumper efforts; step up in trip suits. Major player on profile.
Details
- J: Joe Anderson
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: 5/2 (3.5)
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Soft-ground winner with hurdle experience; strong yard; clear danger with solid place claims.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: 4/1 (5.0)
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Bumper form stacks up; leading stable; genuine place player with scope to progress.
Details
- J: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
- T: Jonjo O’Neill
- Trip: 2m7f177y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: 3/1 (4.0)
- Overround: 108.6%
Analysis
Stays well, handles soft, recent second over trip; strong value profile.
Details
- J: Harry Bannister
- T: Richard Bandey
- Trip: 2m7f177y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: 5/1 (6.0)
- Overround: 108.6%
Analysis
C&D second on soft; unexposed chaser with solid place prospects.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Rebecca Curtis
- Trip: 2m7f177y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 6/1 (7.0)
- Overround: 108.6%
Analysis
Back-class C&D form; risky after PPs but well-treated if bouncing back.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: 11/4 (3.75)
- Overround: 110.8%
Analysis
Strong yard, good base form; slight NP edge; most likely winner.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: 3/1 (4.0)
- Overround: 110.8%
Analysis
Irish point and bumper winner; major danger in testing ground.
Details
- J: Isabel Williams
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 23%
- Odds: 13/2 (7.5)
- Overround: 110.8%
Analysis
Soft-ground and hurdling experience; profile screams live outsider.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Kim Bailey
- Trip: 2m7f191y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: 5/1 (6.0)
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Interesting stayer on handicap debut; shapes as though this trip in the mud will suit.
Details
- J: Sean Houlihan
- T: Philip Hobbs
- Trip: 2m7f191y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: 3/1 (4.0)
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Soft-ground form and staying profile; model rates him very strongly.
Details
- J: David Bass
- T: Oliver Signy
- Trip: 2m7f191y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 7/1 (8.0)
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Unexposed stayer; capable of outrunning odds if finding rhythm.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Rebecca Curtis
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 2/1 (3.0)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Course winner with soft-ground form; strong, reliable profile at this level.
Details
- J: Charlie Deutsch
- T: Venetia Williams
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: 4/1 (5.0)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Yard excels in these conditions; serious threat if sharpening up.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Katy Price
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: n/a
- Odds: 6/1 (7.0)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Course form and top jockey booking; a player despite slightly tight odds.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: 3/1 (4.0)
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Open to improvement; proven on soft; top of the market and justified.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Tim Vaughan
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: 5/1 (6.0)
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Soft-ground credentials and positive NP/IP split; attractive each-way option.
Details
- J: Richie McLernon
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: 8/1 (9.0)
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Lightly raced with upsides; fits the each-way frame in a deep heat.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Harry Derham
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: 8/11 (1.73)
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Sets a clear form standard; very strong claims but short enough in the market.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: 2/1 (3.0)
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Winning pointer from a leading yard; obvious chance but market-aware punting advised.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: David Evans
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: 8/1 (9.0)
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Represents the value angle with winning form and positive NP/IP; could easily hit the frame.
Analysis
Proven course winner with strong soft-ground credentials, a likeable attitude, and a mark he can exploit in a winnable 2m handicap chase. Conditions, profile, and market shape align: this is the “run-that-wins” scenario on our model.