Bet Smart & Win — Naas Race Preview
Sunday 09 November 2025 • Full Card • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Phillip Enright
- T: Andrew Slattery
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Form figures disguise strong efforts in deeper races; proven on soft and shapes as though this trip is ideal. SecEff-J points to a strong late finish; NP>IP flags Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Danny Gilligan
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Lightly raced, powerful yard, workable mark and strong stamina profile. NP>IP supports a Fair-to-Above-Fair view.
Details
- J: Brian Hayes
- T: Philip Fenton
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Last-time-out winner with solid SecEff-J but IP>NP leaves him Below Fair on price despite a likeable profile.
Details
- J: Sean O’Keeffe
- T: Peter Lawlor
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.8%
Analysis
Dual bumper winner with high engine; hurdling frailties to iron out and IP>NP leaves him short enough on value.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.8%
Analysis
Point and bumper winner from a top yard; NP>IP marks him down as Fair to Above Fair in a deep maiden.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.8%
Analysis
Classy bumper winner; clear contender but IP fractionally above NP = Below Fair on pure value at likely market position.
Details
- J: Paul Townend
- T: M D O’Callaghan
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 18%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.8%
Analysis
Sets the form standard but trades short; IP>NP underlines Below Fair despite obvious claims.
Details
- J: Cian Cullinan
- T: P G Fahey
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.8%
Analysis
Progressive mare with a valuable claim; NP>IP makes her the value against boys.
Details
- J: Calum Hogan
- T: E Seymour
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.8%
Analysis
Tough and reliable; NP<IP so more interesting for place and exotics than win-only.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m2f200y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (short; Below Fair zone)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Clear form standout but very cramped on the tissue; NP well below IP = no value at likely odds.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m2f200y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (short; Below Fair zone)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Strong profile but market likely too aggressive; NP<IP suggests underpriced despite obvious chance.
Details
- J: Tiernan Power Roche
- T: P J Rothwell
- Trip: 2m2f200y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (big price)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Scope to step forward at a big price; NP>IP screams Above Fair for small-stakes each-way/places.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: James Joseph Mangan
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Classy type dropping from Grade 1 company; marginally Below Fair on tissue but serious winning claims.
Details
- J: Michael Kenneally
- T: Stephen Gerard Carey
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (likely double-figure)
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Progressive, well-treated, travels and finds; NP>IP signals Above Fair in a race set up for strong finishers.
Details
- J: Paul Townend
- T: W P Mullins
- Trip: 2m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Mullins factor commands respect, but IP>NP makes him a touch underpriced vs stablemate/field.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (short; Fair-ish)
- Overround: 105.7%
Analysis
Top-class; small field suits. Marginally Below Fair on strict NP/IP but difficult to oppose on ability.
Details
- J: Paul Townend
- T: W P Mullins
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.7%
Analysis
Grade 1 winner needing a bounce back; NP≈IP suggests broadly Fair.
Details
- J: Keith Donoghue
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.7%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent with mares allowance; some value erosion (IP>NP) tempers enthusiasm at front-end quotes.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113.5%
Analysis
Classy hurdler; if jumping holds up, a leading player. Value sits around Fair.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (fav; Below Fair)
- Overround: 113.5%
Analysis
Huge IP vs NP gap; talent clear but the model marks him as significantly Below Fair at projected odds.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113.5%
Analysis
Hurdle form solid; another with Fair-ish profile on chase debut.
Details
- J: Mr H C Swan
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (front of market)
- Overround: 111.9%
Analysis
Solid form pick but market has overreacted; NP<IP = Below Fair despite strong chance.
Details
- J: Mr D L Queally
- T: Declan Queally
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.9%
Analysis
Experienced mare; competitive but Again NP<IP dims the value angle.
Details
- J: Mr D G Lavery
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.9%
Analysis
Debut winner; fits well on form. NP≈IP keeps her in the Fair zone as key danger.
Analysis
Proven soft-ground performer with a light weight, strong SecEff-J figures and a closing style tailor-made for a truly run 2m4f at Naas. NP edges above IP, confirming an identifiable value margin in a competitive Listed handicap. This aligns strongest with the model’s “run-to-win” scenario — back with confidence.