Bet Smart & Win — Kempton Race Preview
Monday 10 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top AI-Led Value Selections
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence, with additional runners flagged where the market misprices their chance.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Alex Chadwick
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
Useful hurdler making chase debut; clearly superior on hurdles form but short price leaves him Below Fair on value.
Details
- J: Kevin Brogan
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104%
Analysis
More experienced over fences but error-prone; needs a clean round to trouble the favourite at roughly Fair value.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Solid, recent winner with the strongest form; but market over-commits, leaving him Below Fair on value terms.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Point and bumper winner with upside; NP > IP marks him as Above Fair against the favourite.
Details
- J: Brendan Powell
- T: Joe Tizzard
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Course winner; mixed recent efforts but ability to hit the frame if principals underperform.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Strong bumper profile; SecEff-J suggests class and stamina. Above Fair on potential.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Point/bumpers form solid; connections demand respect and price still Above Fair on projections.
Details
- J: Brendan Powell
- T: Joe Tizzard
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Sets the standard on experience; Fair value with slightly limited upside vs improvers.
Details
- J: Freddie Keighley
- T: Martin Keighley
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.3%
Analysis
C&D winner in form; sets the standard with Fair, efficient pricing.
Details
- J: Callum Pritchard
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.3%
Analysis
Forgive last run; progressive prior figures and NP > IP flag him as a live Above Fair alternative.
Details
- J: Jack Quinlan
- T: Neil King
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.3%
Analysis
Lightly raced; capable of outrunning price if returning to peak; marginal value at current tissue.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.9%
Analysis
In superb form; strong SecEff-J and efficient market rating. Benchmark runner and key qualifier.
Details
- J: Charlie Hammond
- T: Stuart Edmunds
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.9%
Analysis
Classy filly dropping from higher grade; numbers keep her firmly in the mix at Fair value.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.9%
Analysis
Typically runs to mark; strong place claims at efficient pricing.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 2m4f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Interesting chase debutante with strong hurdles SecEff-J; Fair opening mark.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m4f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Progressive mare; flawless jumping so far and NP > IP flags clear Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Brendan Powell
- T: Joe Tizzard
- Trip: 2m4f110y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Last year’s winner; back in form and retains solid course credentials at Fair odds.
Details
- J: Freddie Gordon
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 3m121y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.7%
Analysis
Impressive last-time winner at the trip; Fairly priced standard setter.
Details
- J: Freddie Mitchell
- T: Max Comley
- Trip: 3m121y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.7%
Analysis
Recent winner; consistent and stays well. Fair price as a leading chance.
Details
- J: Daniel Sansom
- T: Seamus Mullins
- Trip: 3m121y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.7%
Analysis
Stays all day, rarely runs badly; NP > IP signals strong each-way value. Each-way advised (4 places/1/5).
Analysis
In peak form with four recent wins, strong SecEff-J finishing profile, reliable jumping and conditions ideal over 2m5f on good ground. The model’s clearest “run-that-wins” scenario in this card — back with confidence.
Implied Probability represents the chance of winning based solely on bookmaker odds.
Normalized Probability adjusts this figure so all selections in a race total 100%, removing the bookmaker’s margin.
Ideally you want the Normalized Probability to be higher than the Implied Probability.