Bet Smart & Win — Carlisle Race Preview
Monday 10 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: Short-priced fav (forecast)
- Overround: 107.7%
Analysis
Unbeaten bumper winner and clear form pick; penalty and price temper enthusiasm. Value: Below Fair.
Details
- J: Robert Dunne
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: Value against fav (forecast)
- Overround: 107.7%
Analysis
Likeable profile; stamina-laden pedigree, workable mark against vulnerable favourite. Value: Above Fair.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: Each-way range (forecast)
- Overround: 107.7%
Analysis
Soft-ground and course experience; honest profile for the frame. Value: Fair.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: Short (forecast)
- Overround: 108.4%
Analysis
Deep engine from point background; strong chance but market over-committed. Value: Below Fair.
Details
- J: Nathan Moscrop
- T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: Competitive mid-range
- Overround: 108.4%
Analysis
Solid point-winning profile; shapes as a proper hurdler. Value: Fair.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: Each-way possible
- Overround: 108.4%
Analysis
Bits of form; needs a clean round to maximise potential. Value: Fair.
Details
- J: Freddie Gingell
- T: Joe Tizzard
- Trip: 2m3f210y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: Fav/shortlist
- Overround: 107.3%
Analysis
In top form; profiles as the right favourite at current quotes. Value: Fair.
Details
- J: Bruce Lynn
- T: N W Alexander
- Trip: 2m3f210y
- Trainer RTF%: 17%
- Odds: Solid each-way
- Overround: 107.3%
Analysis
Course specialist with soft-ground credentials; strong value angle. Value: Above Fair.
Details
- J: Richie McLernon
- T: Ben Haslam
- Trip: 2m3f210y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: Each-way player
- Overround: 107.3%
Analysis
Strong stayer; can pick up pieces late. Value: Fair.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m3f218y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: Prominent in market
- Overround: 106.7%
Analysis
Stays well and rarely runs a bad race; profile screams solid win/place. Value: Above Fair.
Details
- J: William Maggs
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m3f218y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: Competitive
- Overround: 106.7%
Analysis
Looks suited by this test; one of several with chances. Value: Fair.
Details
- J: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
- T: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
- Trip: 2m3f218y
- Trainer RTF%: 32%
- Odds: Bigger price
- Overround: 106.7%
Analysis
Often thereabouts; more a place than win profile. Value: Fair.
Details
- J: Keith Donoghue
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 1m7f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: Prominent
- Overround: 105.9%
Analysis
Class act when right; small field suits tactical nous. Value: Fair.
Details
- J: Dylan Johnston
- T: Sam Thomas
- Trip: 1m7f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: Strongly supported
- Overround: 105.9%
Analysis
Top-of-market contender; odds shade too short versus model. Value: Below Fair.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 1m7f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: Respectable
- Overround: 105.9%
Analysis
Rock-solid graded form; market slightly overestimates win chance. Value: Below Fair.
Details
- J: Nathan Moscrop
- T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: Double-figure zone (forecast)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Won this last year off same mark; track/conditions ideal; standout value signal. Value: Above Fair.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: Fav/shortlist
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Unexposed and progressive; rightful market leader, marginally tight. Value: Fair.
Details
- J: Leah Noreci
- T: James Moffatt
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: Each-way ish
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Honest type; market a shade short vs model. Value: Below Fair.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m3f210y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: Prominent
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Lightly raced with upside; model slightly against current price. Value: Below Fair.
Details
- J: Charlie Deutsch
- T: Venetia Williams
- Trip: 2m3f210y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: Contender
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Soft-ground mare; model has her firmly on the shortlist. Value: Fair.
Details
- J: Peter Kavanagh
- T: Stuart Coltherd
- Trip: 2m3f210y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: Live each-way
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Arrives in form; no reason she can’t be involved again. Value: Fair.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: Fav on paper
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Strong yard bumper type; model wary of cramped price. Value: Below Fair.
Details
- J: Charlie Todd
- T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: 23%
- Odds: Each-way
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Experience and proven soft-ground effort; solid benchmark. Value: Fair.
Details
- J: David Bass
- T: Henry Daly
- Trip: 2m1f33y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: On the shortlist
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Point win screams stamina; respected in this line-up. Value: Fair.
Analysis
Proven course-and-distance winner off this very mark in identical conditions. Strong historic sectional efficiency at Carlisle, handles the climb, and flagged by the model as a clear NP > IP value edge versus market expectation. This aligns best with the “run-that-wins” scenario — Nap of the Meeting.
Implied Probability represents the chance of winning based solely on bookmaker odds. Normalized Probability adjusts this figure so all selections in a race total 100%, removing the bookmaker’s margin. Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be higher than the Implied Probability.