Bet Smart & Win — Huntingdon Race Preview
Tuesday 11 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Jack Quinlan
- T: Ben Case
- Trip: 2m 7f 129y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: 3.05 (guide)
- Overround: 107.1%
Analysis
Proven over trip and ground; strong recent SecEff-J and solid jumping make him the percentage call.
Details
- J: Lilly Pinchin
- T: Neil King
- Trip: 2m 7f 129y
- Trainer RTF%: 17%
- Odds: 3.30 (guide)
- Overround: 107.1%
Analysis
In form, front-running style suits track; solid chance in small field.
Details
- J: Charlie Deutsch
- T: Venetia Williams
- Trip: 2m 7f 129y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: 5.49 (guide)
- Overround: 107.1%
Analysis
Stays well and brings class; major player if reproducing peak form.
Details
- J: James Turner
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m 4f 145y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: 6.29 (guide)
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Handicap debut; figures suggest lenient mark and strong stable form. Solid each-way shape.
Details
- J: Alex Chadwick
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m 4f 145y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: 3.25 (guide)
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Shape of recent runs is encouraging but market slightly short; place claims more than win value.
Details
- J: Fern O’Brien
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 4f 145y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: 7.52 (guide)
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Past winning profile fits conditions; needs to bounce back but has the tools.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 1m 7f 171y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: 2.00 (guide)
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
High-class profile; strong SecEff-J and slick hurdling mark her down as the standout.
Details
- J: Nick Slatter
- T: D. Killahena & G. McPherson
- Trip: 1m 7f 171y
- Trainer RTF%: 17%
- Odds: 4.41 (guide)
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Solid form base; shapes as the main threat if jumping holds up.
Details
- J: Kielan Woods
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 1m 7f 171y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: 10.00 (guide)
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Point winner with upside; market likely underestimates her in this setup.
Details
- J: Robert Dunne
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m 3f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: 3.50 (guide)
- Overround: 111.9%
Analysis
Stays well but chase debut and price look short; needs to jump cleanly.
Details
- J: Freddie Gordon
- T: Karen Jewell
- Trip: 2m 3f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 9.52 (guide)
- Overround: 111.9%
Analysis
Solid stamina and profile; shaped better than bare form; attractive value.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Tom Gretton
- Trip: 2m 3f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 9.01 (guide)
- Overround: 111.9%
Analysis
Experience over fences a plus; should be staying on late.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m 7f 171y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: 4.00 (guide)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
C&D form and strong SecEff-J; sets solid benchmark in this grade.
Details
- J: Luke Scott
- T: Jennie Candlish
- Trip: 1m 7f 171y
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: 2.75 (guide)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent but current price trims value; obvious contender.
Details
- J: Alex Chadwick
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m 7f 171y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: 4.00 (guide)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
C&D credentials and reliable profile; strong alternative.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m 7f 171y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: 4.00 (guide)
- Overround: 112.0%
Analysis
Well handicapped on peak efforts but needs a revival; price currently short of ‘value’.
Details
- J: Charlie Todd
- T: Charles & Adam Pogson
- Trip: 1m 7f 171y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: 9.01 (guide)
- Overround: 112.0%
Analysis
Progressive but market slightly tight versus model; still a live contender.
Details
- J: Fern O’Brien
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 1m 7f 171y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: 5.99 (guide)
- Overround: 112.0%
Analysis
C&D winner; conditions suit; attractive alternative if finding rhythm.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 1m 7f 171y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: 3.50 (guide)
- Overround: 108.7%
Analysis
Well-bred and from a strong yard but market already factors in potential.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Toby Bulgin
- Trip: 1m 7f 171y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: 2.60 (guide)
- Overround: 108.7%
Analysis
Experience edge and solid figures; short enough in market against improving types.
Details
- J: Philip Armson
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 1m 7f 171y
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: 8.00 (guide)
- Overround: 108.7%
Analysis
Stable excels in bumpers; profile suggests she could outrun her price.
Analysis
Proven on good ground with superior speed figures and strong SecEff-J. Sharp 2m setup plays to her strengths; hurdles fluently and holds a clear NP edge in a winnable mares’ event. Trainer/jockey combination in form — the model’s strongest “run-that-wins” profile on the card.
Implied Probability represents the chance of winning based solely on bookmaker odds.
Normalized Probability adjusts this figure so all selections in a race total 100%, removing the bookmaker’s margin.
Ideally you want the Normalized Probability to be higher than the Implied Probability.