Bet Smart & Win — Dundalk Race Preview
Wednesday 12 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Luke McAteer
- T: David Marnane
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
The betting-forecast favourite from a yard in form; NP > IP signals strong value.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Denis Gerard Hogan
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Top weight but top rider; fairly priced with place claims.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Daniel James Murphy
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent recent form; fair value and a likely player.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Stephen Thorne
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Well treated on prior Curragh run; model rates Above Fair and most likely winner.
Details
- J: Gary Carroll
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Competitive nursery form; fair value and solid place chance.
Details
- J: Terry Casey
- T: Michael Mulvany
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
CD winner; fair value with NP slightly above IP.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: G M Lyons
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Clear on figures with top connections; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Jack Kearney
- T: Stephen Thorne
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Main danger; also Above Fair on the model.
Details
- J: Luke McAteer
- T: Keith Henry Clarke
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
CD winner; fair value and third pick.
Details
- J: Declan McDonogh
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Unexposed filly expected to improve; Above Fair and the standout bet.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Stephen Thorne
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Form standard-setter; fair value and major threat.
Details
- J: Sam Coen
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Glimpses of ability; fair value as the best of the rest.
Details
- J: J M Sheridan
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Barrier trial winner; debuts for a powerful yard; fair value with upside.
Details
- J: Luke McAteer
- T: David Marnane
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Consistent placed form; fair value and a leading contender.
Details
- J: Wayne Lordan
- T: Miss Natalia Lupini
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Forecast favourite with solid form; fair value but tricky draw.
Details
- J: Jessica O’Gorman
- T: Eddie & Patrick Harty
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Tipster selection; Above Fair value and well treated.
Details
- J: Jimmy Dalton
- T: Miss Evanna McCutcheon
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Arrives in top form; Above Fair and very likely winner if repeating.
Details
- J: Adam Caffrey
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Reliable type; fair value for the frame.
Details
- J: Paddy Harnett
- T: Donnacha Aidan O’Brien
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: 86%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Strong C&D run last time; Above Fair and poised to build on it.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Paul W Flynn
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Forecast favourite; fair value but returns from an absence.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: Mrs John Harrington
- Trip: 1m2f150y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (guide odds not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Reliable yard; fair value and solid each-way proposition.
Analysis
Unexposed filly with significant improvement expected; Joseph O’Brien yard; Above Fair rating. Back with confidence.