Bet Smart & Win — Sedgefield Race Preview
Thursday 13 November 2025 • 6 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Paddy Hanlon
- T: Patrick Neville
- Trip: 2m 178y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Form figures flatter as the fall was when in contention; recent second at Perth on similar ground confirms well-being. SecEff-J is solid for this grade with a likely handy position. Jumping is generally sound bar one blip; value call is Fair with NP slightly ahead of IP in a competitive heat.
Details
- J: Charlie Maggs
- T: Adam Nicol
- Trip: 2m 178y
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Proven on soft ground and now drops in class after a poor run, which is the chief concern. SecEff-J suggests stamina is assured and he should be running on strongly late. Jumping reliability is good, but value is Below Fair at current odds, requiring a form rebound.
Details
- J: Joe Williamson
- T: Philip Kirby
- Trip: 2m 178y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Course-and-distance winner who is well-handicapped if recapturing old form. SecEff-J is consistent and the running style suits a strong gallop. Jumping is reliable and with NP > IP he offers Above Fair value as a lively outsider.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 2m 178y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.2%
Analysis
Impressive last-time-out winner on soft ground with the form subsequently franked. SecEff-J is the strongest in the field, showing a powerful finish. Jumping is sound for a juvenile and the clear NP > IP edge makes this an Above Fair proposition.
Details
- J: Alex Chadwick
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m 178y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.2%
Analysis
Consistent filly with solid placed form on soft/heavy ground. SecEff-J is respectable and she should be prominent throughout. Jumping is generally good and the value assessment is Fair, though she may need improvement to trouble the favourite.
Details
- J: Charlie Maggs
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 2m 178y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.2%
Analysis
Tough and consistent but finds life tougher under a penalty. SecEff-J is reliable but lacks the turn of foot of the principals. Fell last time so jumping confidence must be rebuilt. Offers Above Fair value for the places with NP above IP.
Details
- J: Conor Ring
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 2m 77y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Was cruising when falling last time and remains well-treated if replicating that effort. SecEff-J is strong for this level but there is an obvious jumping caution on this first run back over fences since. If clear, the NP > IP edge offers Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Charlie Price
- T: Maurice Barnes
- Trip: 2m 77y
- Trainer RTF%: (not provided)
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Unproven on ground this soft which is a significant question mark. SecEff-J is fair and he should be on the pace. Jumping has been mostly solid and value is Fair, but stamina on this surface over the longer trip is a concern.
Details
- J: Benjamin Macey
- T: Samuel Drinkwater
- Trip: 2m 77y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Comes here off a win but is penalised and must prove it wasn’t a one-off. SecEff-J is only moderate and jumping has been a recurring concern. Value is Fair at current odds but risks are high.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 3f 188y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.9%
Analysis
Course bumper winner with excellent recent form on soft/heavy ground; sets the standard. SecEff-J is strong, showing she stays thoroughly. Jumping is sound and with NP > IP she rates an Above Fair bet.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 2m 3f 188y
- Trainer RTF%: 82%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.9%
Analysis
Has the best hurdles form in the book but returns from a long absence. Historic SecEff-J is good and jumping should be reliable, but fitness after 224 days off is the primary concern. Value rating is Fair.
Details
- J: Ben Bromley
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m 3f 188y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.9%
Analysis
Consistent mare who is proven on the ground and stays well enough. SecEff-J is honest if unspectacular and her jumping is reliable. With NP > IP she offers Above Fair value to hit the frame at a price.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Patrick Neville
- Trip: 3m 2f 59y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.0%
Analysis
An all-or-nothing type but dangerously well-handicapped on his best soft-ground form. SecEff-J suggests he will relish this stamina test. Jumping can be erratic but when it clicks he is capable; NP > IP provides an Above Fair value call.
Details
- J: Peter Kavanagh
- T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
- Trip: 3m 2f 59y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.0%
Analysis
Unproven over this extreme trip, especially on testing ground. SecEff-J at shorter trips is encouraging, hinting stamina may be within range. Jumping is reliable, but value is Below Fair at current odds with the trip a clear unknown.
Details
- J: Conor O’Farrell
- T: Micky Hammond
- Trip: 3m 2f 59y
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.0%
Analysis
Course winner last time and stamina proven, but now has a penalty to defy. SecEff-J was good in that win and jumping is sound. Value is Below Fair given the rise in the weights, but current form keeps him on the shortlist.
Details
- J: Ross Chapman
- T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 2m 3f 188y
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.1%
Analysis
Lightly raced and open to improvement with encouraging soft-ground form. SecEff-J indicates he will finish off strongly at this trip. Fell two starts ago but otherwise jumping has been clean. NP > IP offers Above Fair value; each-way terms (4 places, 1/5) appeal.
Details
- J: Joe Williamson
- T: Philip Kirby
- Trip: 2m 3f 188y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.1%
Analysis
Has obvious claims on form but must prove stamina for this longer trip on soft ground. SecEff-J at the new distance is untested and jumping has been chequered with multiple pulled-ups. Value is Fair but risks are notable.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Micky Hammond
- Trip: 2m 3f 188y
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.1%
Analysis
Consistent and proven on the ground but often finds one or two too good. SecEff-J is steady yet lacks a decisive finishing kick. Jumping is reliable and while value is Below Fair at the price, she remains a solid place contender.
Analysis
Proven soft-ground winner with superior SecEff-J, strong finishing figures and a reliable jumping profile for a juvenile. Trainer is in form and the sharp 2m 178y configuration should play to his strengths. With a clear NP > IP edge, this is the run-that-wins scenario the model favours most — back with confidence.