Bet Smart & Win — Southwell Race Preview
Friday 14 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Jack Quinlan
- T: Matt Crawley
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Solid recent form (2226) in a weak contest; handles soft ground and stays well. SecEff-J profile is strong for a prominent ride at this track. High RTF% with NP > IP marks him as clear value.
Details
- J: Charlie Todd
- T: Charles & Adam Pogson
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Stays strongly and is proven on soft/heavy, but top weight and a chase debut add risk. SecEff-J suggests he finishes well off a strong pace; market looks a shade short.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Placed on soft and the drop back in trip is a plus. Needs a good pace to show best; recent pulled-up effort tempers confidence but profile still rates fair.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 3m60y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Soft-ground winner in form and shapes as if this marathon trip will suit. SecEff-J shows a relentless staying profile; justified favourite with NP comfortably above IP.
Details
- J: Charlie Todd
- T: Charles & Adam Pogson
- Trip: 3m60y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Stamina-laden type who should be suited by a prominent ride over this trip. Pulled up last time but prior win keeps him firmly in the mix at current prices.
Details
- J: Charlie Hammond
- T: Stuart Edmunds
- Trip: 3m60y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Strong galloper whose prior chase record was very solid before a fall. If handling the ground, his grinding SecEff-J profile makes him a live value alternative.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m4f88y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.8%
Analysis
Up in trip and unexposed over fences, with strong hurdle SecEff-J figures. Top yard/jockey; slight stamina query but model sees him as the one to beat at current odds.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m4f88y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.8%
Analysis
Heavy-ground winner with a relentless galloping style. Proven stamina and strong SecEff-J make him a serious threat if jumping holds up.
Details
- J: Charlie Hammond
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trip: 2m4f88y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.8%
Analysis
Has a soft-ground win on the card but recent profile is patchy with falls and a pull-up. Only of interest at bigger prices.
Details
- J: Jack Hogan
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Excellent debut second on soft and shaped well again despite inexperience. SecEff-J points to a strong finishing kick; gets a useful allowance and sets a solid standard.
Details
- J: Charlie Todd
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Smart connections and good debut figures, but market possibly overstates chance relative to Gidge. Still a big runner in a deep bumper.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Well-bred newcomer from a powerful yard. No race data yet but stable’s bumper strike-rate and pedigree justify inclusion as a value-based unknown.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Useful in bumpers with a win on good to soft; strong engine on SecEff-J. If jumping holds up on hurdles debut, he sets a high standard.
Details
- J: Charlie Todd
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Useful hurdling form already in the book and should be sharper for his latest run. Unseat not a major concern; leading stable commands respect.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 1m7f182y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Irish point and bumper winner with a likeable attitude. Hurdle debut effort was promising enough; if he tidies up his technique, he will be in the shake-up.
Details
- J: Lilly Pinchin
- T: Henrietta C Knight
- Trip: 2m4f88y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.5%
Analysis
Progressive hurdler with strong soft-ground form and rock-solid SecEff-J figures. Reliable jumper and model of consistency; NP > IP with an attractive value edge. NAP material.
Details
- J: Fern O’Brien
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m4f88y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.5%
Analysis
Arrives in very good form with a recent soft-ground win, but now higher in the weights. Still a big danger, though value is marginal against Motazzen.
Details
- J: Charlie Deutsch
- T: Mel Rowley
- Trip: 2m4f88y
- Trainer RTF%: 18%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.5%
Analysis
Soft-ground winner who can make all when things fall right. Trainer not firing but the horse retains each-way claims at bigger prices. EW angle if 3 places / 1/5 odds.
Details
- J: Stan Sheppard
- T: Tom Lacey
- Trip: 2m4f88y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.7%
Analysis
On an upward curve with soft-ground form and improved SecEff-J. Consistent jumper who looks ready to win again; model’s top pick.
Details
- J: Jamie Brace
- T: D J Jeffreys
- Trip: 2m4f88y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.7%
Analysis
Consistent performer with several solid soft-ground runs. Often does best work late; strong place claims and obvious danger to Jack Hoola.
Details
- J: Elliott England
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m4f88y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.7%
Analysis
Gutsy soft-ground winner last time, but now carries a penalty. Still has frame possibilities and rates a fair each-way option if the price holds.
Analysis
Proven soft-ground performer with a rock-solid SecEff-J profile and a reliable jumping technique. NP comfortably exceeds IP in a fair overround book, and his consistent attitude marks him out as the standout value play on the card. This is our Nap of the Meeting at Southwell.