Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Tuesday 21 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Eoin Staples
- T: Edward F Power
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Proven on heavy in Ireland and the step up to 2m5f on a stiff track is a major plus. SecEff-J from his Punchestown win shows a strong finish and a strongly-run race should suit. Sound jumper with a clear Above Fair NP > IP edge.
Details
- J: Callum Pritchard
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Soft/heavy form figures of 2321 highlight his suitability to conditions. Strong closer who should be seen to good effect up the hill; reliable jumper and rated Fair value.
Details
- J: Rian Corcoran
- T: David Pipe
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Course winner with assured stamina and solid soft-ground form. SecEff-J is consistent and his completion rate is high. Model flags an Above Fair angle in a deep handicap.
Details
- J: Charlie Maggs
- T: Richard Hobson
- Trip: 2m4f44y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Excellent Cheltenham record, including a close Plate second, and proven on soft. SecEff-J is elite for the grade, often finishing fastest of all. Bold, efficient jumper; rated Fair value in a competitive veterans’ chase.
Details
- J: Rex Dingle
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 2m4f44y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Arrives in career-best form with back-to-back wins on soft and good to soft. Rising trip is a small query but his finish suggests he’ll stay. Unexposed at this level and offers an Above Fair value edge.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 2m4f44y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Ready winner on soft last time, confirming stamina. SecEff-J is trending upward with age and he should get a suitable pace to track. Sound jumper and priced around Fair value.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 3m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.5%
Analysis
Chase debut winner on soft and bred to relish this longer trip. Worcester SecEff-J is strong and points to stamina in reserve. Jumped well on debut but market has him slightly Below Fair at current odds.
Details
- J: Rex Dingle
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 3m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.5%
Analysis
Course-and-distance winner with strong track credentials. Reliable jumper with proven stamina, but the market slightly overestimates him, leaving Below Fair value despite a high chance of hitting the frame.
Details
- J: Alex Chadwick
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 3m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.5%
Analysis
Heavy-ground winner whose SecEff-J suggests he’ll stay strongly up the hill. Jumping is a minor concern but the model finds an Above Fair angle if he gets a clean round.
Details
- J: Nico de Boinville
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 1m7f199y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Top-class CD winner with impeccable good-to-soft form. SecEff-J is consistently high and he has a sharp turn of foot. Rock-solid jumper who sets the standard; priced at roughly Fair value.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 1m7f199y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Progressive and handles cut well with excellent finishing speed figures. Genuine Grade 2 rival but current pricing is Below Fair; still the main threat if Jonbon underperforms.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 1m7f199y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Unproven on soft but has the physical scope for it. SecEff-J is still an unknown at this level and jumping errors are a concern. Value rated Below Fair at present.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Unproven on soft but held in high regard after a promising Champion Bumper run here. Step up in trip should suit his pedigree. SecEff-J is a partial unknown but stable confidence and pricing create an Above Fair setup.
Details
- J: Mark McDonagh
- T: John C McConnell
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 26%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Brings strong, consistent Irish form on yielding or softer ground. Profile suggests he’ll handle both the trip and the track. Tough and reliable jumper; rated Fair in a tight market.
Details
- J: Keith Donoghue
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 2m5f
- Trainer RTF%: 37%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Heavy-ground winner with solid Irish SecEff-J figures. Jumping has occasional flaws but ground conditions bring him into it. Model rates him roughly Fair value.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Course-and-distance winner dropping in grade from a Grade 2. SecEff-J is strong for this level and his jumping is generally fluent, but compressed handicap mark leaves him Below Fair on current prices, despite being the one to beat.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: A J Martin
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
French heavy-ground winner who scored easily on soft, suggesting he could be well-treated. SecEff-J on UK tracks is untested but potential is high. Model marks him as strong Above Fair each-way value.
Details
- J: Daniel King
- T: A J Martin
- Trip: 2m87y
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Stablemate with proven soft/heavy form and a lenient weight at the foot of the handicap. SecEff-J profile is promising but current odds leave him Below Fair, albeit very much on the shortlist for shrewd plots.
Analysis
Proven in deep-ground Irish handicaps with a strong staying profile for 2m5f on this stiff track. SecEff-J marks him down as a powerful finisher up the hill and his jumping is reliable. With a clear NP > IP edge and the yard expected to have targeted this, he is our Nap of the Meeting — back with confidence.