Bet Smart & Win — Uttoxeter Race Preview
Saturday 15 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Bradley Harris
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Fell last time but was in contention; proven to handle heavy ground and brings solid SecEff-J figures for the grade. Completion is a small concern, yet the NP > IP edge and ground suitability mark him as the value play.
Details
- J: Tom Broughton
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Solid profile on soft and heavy; consistent finishing effort and a strong yard-jockey axis. IP just edging NP warns against over-staking but he looks the main danger if Reinado falters.
Details
- J: William Maggs
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Top weight with fair soft-ground form and the class to feature, but price implies slightly more than the model. Stable in form; cannot be discounted but filed as Below Fair value.
Details
- J: Brendan Powell
- T: Noel Williams
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Course bumper winner with strong form for this level; stamina for 2m3f looks assured. Pedigree suggests heavy ground is fine and the NP–IP gap underlines her status as the clear standard-setter.
Details
- J: Tom Broughton
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Solid soft-ground form and experience should see her involved. Model rates her exactly Fair; she is the natural alternative to the favourite.
Details
- J: Harry Reed
- T: Harry Derham
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Showed ability in a bumper and now switches to hurdles for a yard in good order. Unknown on heavy but has scope to improve; a minor each-way type at a bigger price.
Details
- J: Lewis Saunders
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 3m2f13y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Stable debut for a powerful yard and a proven heavy-ground winner in France. The marathon trip should play to his stamina and a fresh mark gives him a clear NP > IP value edge.
Details
- J: James Davies
- T: Nick Gifford
- Trip: 3m2f13y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Obvious form choice on previous efforts but disappointed on return and remains unproven on really deep ground. Price still Fair; however, the model marginally prefers the fresh, heavy-ground angle of Gold Clermont.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 3m2f13y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Stays well and has suitable soft-ground form but the market takes a slightly more optimistic view than the model. One for place considerations rather than out-and-out value.
Details
- J: Charlie Price
- T: Robbie Llewellyn
- Trip: 1m7f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
C&D placed and already proven on similar ground. Slight NP edge over IP plus track form gives her a narrow analytical advantage.
Details
- J: Richard Patrick
- T: Matt Sheppard
- Trip: 1m7f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Has the recent winning form but is unproven on heavy going and may find this particularly demanding. Rating remains Fair but with a clear ground-related caveat.
Details
- J: David Bass
- T: Henry Daly
- Trip: 1m7f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
C&D winner who must bounce back from a lesser effort and a fall. Heavy going is a question but past course form keeps her in the mix at Fair value.
Details
- J: Mr Ben Sutton
- T: Harry Derham
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Most solid piece of form on soft ground and the clear form choice; however, IP now runs slightly ahead of NP, suggesting the market has tightened. Still the most likely winner but not a value overlay.
Details
- J: Liam Harrison
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Arrives on the back of a win and is clearly on an upward curve, but heavy ground remains an unknown. Parameter set marks him as the main threat, albeit at a correctly priced level.
Details
- J: Toby Wynne
- T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 27%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Soft/heavy form is encouraging and this looks a suitable stamina test. With IP narrowly greater than NP he is fairly priced rather than a standout; each-way angles remain viable where place terms are generous.
Details
- J: Kevin Brogan
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.9%
Analysis
Unexposed and open to improvement for a yard in strong form; ground no issue and step up in trip looks ideal. NP comfortably above IP marks him down as Above Fair value and a leading contender.
Details
- J: James Turner
- T: Alan Jones
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.9%
Analysis
Arrives on the back of a win on soft ground and is suited by this longer trip. With IP marginally above NP he’s priced about right rather than generous, but remains a strong place player.
Details
- J: Alice Stevens
- T: Claire Dyson
- Trip: 2m3f207y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.9%
Analysis
C&D winner who will appreciate conditions and trip. Market is fractionally ahead of the model, so this is Fair rather than standout value but still worth noting for each-way structures.
Details
- J: Conor O’Farrell
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104.9%
Analysis
Has shown ability in points and brings valuable experience into a small-field bumper. IP narrowly exceeds NP, suggesting the market has tightened, but he remains the form choice.
Details
- J: Liam Harrison
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104.9%
Analysis
Powerful bumper yard with a good record in this type of race. Market respect is obvious and he ranks as the chief threat on debut.
Details
- J: Robert Dunne
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 1m7f168y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104.9%
Analysis
Well-connected bumper type from another strong stable. Likely to be ready first time and must be respected in a tactical small field.
Analysis
Proven heavy-ground winner now making a stable debut for a powerful yard off a potentially lenient mark. Over a demanding 3m2f on testing ground, his stamina profile, NP > IP value edge, and positive trainer-jockey winter strike-rate combine to form the strongest “run-that-wins” scenario on the card.