Bet Smart & Win — Wetherby 15/11/25

Bet Smart & Win — Wetherby Race Preview

Saturday 15 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race

Methodology & Performance

How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge

The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.

At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%

These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.

How We Pick Winners

Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.


How To Read the Format

We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.

The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.

Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.

When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.

Boyle Sports Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier) — 12:15
Wetherby • 8 runners • Good to Soft • 3m 45y
R1 Cl4 108%
#6 The Big Breac
Form: 72116-8
Peter Kavanagh AF
NP
16.8%
IP
14.3%
Details
  • J: Peter Kavanagh
  • T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
  • Trip: 3m 45y
  • Trainer RTF%: 56%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 107.6%
Analysis

Potentially well-treated for this chase debut and bred to handle Good to Soft; stamina looks assured on hurdling and point form. SecEff-J is unproven over fences, but the model flags a notable NP > IP value edge. Each-way advised (4 places, 1/5).

#3 Jupiter Des Bordes
Form: 43342-6
Charlie Maggs F
NP
15.9%
IP
15.4%
Details
  • J: Charlie Maggs
  • T: Richard Hobson
  • Trip: 3m 45y
  • Trainer RTF%: 50%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 107.6%
Analysis

Consistent staying type with proven soft-ground form and plenty of stamina for this demanding trip. SecEff-J suggests he finishes his races strongly and he jumps soundly. Fair value and very solid for the frame.

#5 Monochromix
Form: 2486-57
Jack Power F
NP
15.9%
IP
15.4%
Details
  • J: Jack Power
  • T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
  • Trip: 3m 45y
  • Trainer RTF%: 41%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 107.6%
Analysis

Well-handicapped on older hurdle form and effective on soft ground. SecEff-J points to him running respectably in stronger company than this and this drop looks ideal. Jumping has wobbled lately but a change of surroundings could sharpen him up.

Get The Boyle Sports App Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race) — 12:50
Wetherby • 8 runners • Good to Soft • 2m 3f 154y
R2 Cl3 107%
#1 Get On George
Form: 245
Danny McMenamin F
NP
24.6%
IP
23.3%
Details
  • J: Danny McMenamin
  • T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
  • Trip: 2m 3f 154y
  • Trainer RTF%: 56%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 106.8%
Analysis

Soft-ground proven and the step up in trip looks tailor-made on his closing effort last time. SecEff-J is strong, marking him as the clear standard-setter. Jumps reliably enough and his experience gives him a solid Fair value profile at the head of the market.

#7 Smart Decision
Form: 1U11-4
Sean Quinlan F
NP
24.6%
IP
23.3%
Details
  • J: Sean Quinlan
  • T: Tim Easterby
  • Trip: 2m 3f 154y
  • Trainer RTF%: 43%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 106.8%
Analysis

Form horse with multiple wins on testing ground and the top official rating. SecEff-J is robust despite a slightly below-par latest run and he should be suited by the expected pace. Generally fluent jumper; Fair value in a race where the front two dominate the market.

#5 Uptown Dandy
Form: 233-5
Callum Pritchard F
NP
18.5%
IP
17.5%
Details
  • J: Callum Pritchard
  • T: Ben Pauling
  • Trip: 2m 3f 154y
  • Trainer RTF%: 51%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 106.8%
Analysis

Point winner with a pedigree for soft ground and stamina, likely to be staying on when others have had enough. SecEff-J from bumper efforts hints that this trip will bring improvement. Hurdling technique is taken on trust but the upside is clear.

Colin Baldwin Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier) — 13:25
Wetherby • 8 runners • Good to Soft • 2m
R3 Cl3 109%
#3 Marche d’Aligre
Form: 12420-4
Gavin Sheehan AF
NP
15.6%
IP
13.9%
Details
  • J: Gavin Sheehan
  • T: Jamie Snowden
  • Trip: 2m
  • Trainer RTF%: 61%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 108.9%
Analysis

Course-and-distance winner with a very strong soft-ground profile and an excellent SecEff-J record at Wetherby. Returns from a break with his stable in form and boasts a convincing NP > IP angle. Rock-solid each-way material (4 places, 1/5).

#7 Hosaamm
Form: 21R-24
Brian Hughes F
NP
14.8%
IP
14.3%
Details
  • J: Brian Hughes
  • T: Adrian Paul Keatley
  • Trip: 2m
  • Trainer RTF%: 14%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 108.9%
Analysis

Progressive overall profile with a minor blip due to a fall; soft-ground and track form firmly in the book. SecEff-J indicates a smart turn of foot at this level and, with Hughes booked, he looks set for another big run at Fair value.

#8 Saligo Bay
Form: 1231317
Jonathan England BF
NP
13.1%
IP
13.9%
Details
  • J: Jonathan England
  • T: Sam England
  • Trip: 2m
  • Trainer RTF%: 39%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 108.9%
Analysis

Reliable and tough with plenty of soft-ground form; SecEff-J keeps him in the mix late. However the model reads his current mark as a shade high, leaving him marginally Below Fair on value terms.

Boyle Sports Daily Money Back Meetings Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) — 14:00
Wetherby • 5 runners • Good to Soft • 1m 7f 36y
R4 Cl3 106%
#2 Meetmebythesea
Form: /1113-5
Callum Pritchard BF
NP
36.4%
IP
38.5%
Details
  • J: Callum Pritchard
  • T: Ben Pauling
  • Trip: 1m 7f 36y
  • Trainer RTF%: 51%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 105.6%
Analysis

Classy and unbeaten in completed chase starts, with form on soft ground and a fluent jumping style. SecEff-J has him clear on performance, but the market has him short enough with IP exceeding NP, so the value rating dips Below Fair.

#5 Ruby Island
Form: 216-218
Danny McMenamin AF
NP
22.7%
IP
20.0%
Details
  • J: Danny McMenamin
  • T: Nicky Richards
  • Trip: 1m 7f 36y
  • Trainer RTF%: 82%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 105.6%
Analysis

Soft-ground stayer from a yard renowned for producing strong chasers. SecEff-J indicates he will be finishing powerfully up the long Wetherby straight. A sound jumper and rated Above Fair on NP versus IP; a genuine threat to the favourite.

#1 Push The Button
Form: 0668-16
Jamie Hamilton F
NP
25.0%
IP
25.0%
Details
  • J: Jamie Hamilton
  • T: Mark Walford
  • Trip: 1m 7f 36y
  • Trainer RTF%: 43%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 105.6%
Analysis

Handles soft ground and should be well suited by this sharp test. SecEff-J is respectable and a positive front-running ride could play to his strengths. Weighted to be competitive and rated Fair on current quotes.

Boyle Sports Now Open In Wetherby Handicap Hurdle — 14:35
Wetherby • 9 runners • Good to Soft • 2m 5f 56y
R5 Cl3 109%
#6 Carismatic Soldier
Form: 2/213-6
James Bowen AF
NP
24.3%
IP
20.8%
Details
  • J: James Bowen
  • T: Olly Murphy
  • Trip: 2m 5f 56y
  • Trainer RTF%: 47%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 108.8%
Analysis

Stamina-laden profile and likely to relish this extended trip on Good to Soft. SecEff-J is excellent, showing a grinding, front-end style that is often rewarded at Wetherby. Jumps well and looks well-in on the figures, with a strong Above Fair NP > IP margin.

#3 Smokeringinthedark
Form: 2143-25
Danny McMenamin F
NP
16.2%
IP
15.9%
Details
  • J: Danny McMenamin
  • T: Nicky Richards
  • Trip: 2m 5f 56y
  • Trainer RTF%: 82%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 108.8%
Analysis

Soft and heavy-ground form in the book and tied in closely with the favourite on several lines. SecEff-J marks him down as another strong stayer who will be suited by a proper stamina test. Consistent jumper and Fairly priced.

#9 Glen Road
Form: 6161-36
Peter Kavanagh F
NP
16.2%
IP
15.9%
Details
  • J: Peter Kavanagh
  • T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
  • Trip: 2m 5f 56y
  • Trainer RTF%: 56%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 108.8%
Analysis

Course winner with proven soft-ground stamina around this trip. SecEff-J suggests he runs to a similar level time and again, and he often goes well fresh. Genuine, honest type who can outrun his odds at Fair value.

Boyle Sports Best Odds Guaranteed ‘Introductory’ Hurdle (GBB Race) — 15:10
Wetherby • 9 runners • Good to Soft • 2m
R6 Cl2 107%
#2 Fresh Perspective
Form: 1/10-15
Gavin Sheehan BF
NP
32.8%
IP
35.7%
Details
  • J: Gavin Sheehan
  • T: Jamie Snowden
  • Trip: 2m
  • Trainer RTF%: 61%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 106.7%
Analysis

Impressive soft-ground debut winner with a dominant SecEff-J figure, travelling strongly and quickening decisively. Jumping already looks very polished. Market is understandably enthusiastic and with IP above NP, his value rating drops Below Fair despite his obvious potential.

#1 Cueros
Form: 15
Mr P W Mullins F
NP
25.0%
IP
25.0%
Details
  • J: Mr P W Mullins
  • T: Harry Derham
  • Trip: 2m
  • Trainer RTF%: 59%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 106.7%
Analysis

Point and bumper winner on heavy ground, so conditions hold no fears. SecEff-J from his bumper success is encouraging and he should improve again for hurdling. From an upwardly mobile yard, he sits at a solid Fair value rating in a warm race.

#3 Lirone Du Seuil
Form: 6/2-4
Charlie Todd AF
NP
20.7%
IP
18.9%
Details
  • J: Charlie Todd
  • T: Dan Skelton
  • Trip: 2m
  • Trainer RTF%: 57%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 106.7%
Analysis

Soft-ground form from France and now with a yard renowned for improving this type. SecEff-J is harder to pin down but the stable switch is a positive sign. Current quotes leave him rated Above Fair on NP versus IP in a race full of potential improvers.

Boyle Sports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap Chase (GBB Race) — 15:43
Wetherby • 8 runners • Good to Soft • 2m 3f 85y
R7 Cl3 108%
#2 Issam
Form: 46312-7
Callum Pritchard F
NP
19.8%
IP
20.0%
Details
  • J: Callum Pritchard
  • T: Tom Symonds
  • Trip: 2m 3f 85y
  • Trainer RTF%: 80%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 108.3%
Analysis

Progressive chaser on soft ground with a compelling SecEff-J profile, travelling smoothly and jumping with plenty of scope. Handicapper still looks to have given him some room and he is rated Fair despite a marginal IP edge over NP.

#6 Cerendipity
Form: 4134-28
Gavin Sheehan F
NP
24.7%
IP
25.0%
Details
  • J: Gavin Sheehan
  • T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
  • Trip: 2m 3f 85y
  • Trainer RTF%: 56%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 108.3%
Analysis

Course winner with a dour stamina profile and strong soft-ground credentials. SecEff-J indicates he keeps finding off the bridle and will appreciate a searching test. Reliable jumper, with current prices putting him on a Fair line despite IP narrowly shading NP.

#3 Primoz
Form: 107-237
Derek Fox AF
NP
15.4%
IP
14.3%
Details
  • J: Derek Fox
  • T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
  • Trip: 2m 3f 85y
  • Trainer RTF%: 41%
  • Odds: (TBC)
  • Overround: 108.3%
Analysis

Soft-ground chase winner who stays this trip thoroughly and often runs to a consistent level on SecEff-J. Jumping is generally assured and the model marks him down as Above Fair value at current odds. Each-way advised (4 places, 1/5).

Nap of the Meeting — Wetherby
Wetherby • 14:35 • 2m 5f 56y • Good to Soft (Class 3)
NAP Cl3 109%
#6 Carismatic Soldier (Form: 2/213-6)
James Bowen NAP AF
Analysis

Carismatic Soldier shapes as a thorough stayer who should relish 2m 5f 56y on Good to Soft, with SecEff-J highlighting a strong, grinding style that fits Wetherby’s finish. His jumping is reliable, the yard is in good nick, and the model shows a significant NP > IP value edge. This combination of stamina, efficiency and price makes him our Nap of the Meeting at Wetherby.

Value Guide: AF = Above Fair, F = Fair, BF = Below Fair.

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