Bet Smart & Win — Navan Race Preview
Monday 17 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m 4f 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112.4%
Analysis
Proven on soft ground with point and hurdle wins; step up in trip on testing ground is a major plus. Strong SecEff-J from previous win and stable flying. Above Fair value and a solid win/place option.
Details
- J: Mike O’Connor
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m 4f 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112.4%
Analysis
Bumper runs on soft/heavy suggest this deep-ground test is ideal. Stamina-laden profile and top yard with a good record in this type. Attractive Each-Way Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Paul Townend
- T: W P Mullins
- Trip: 2m 4f 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112.4%
Analysis
Heavy-ground bumper winner with class; trip on hurdles debut is the main unknown. Market strong on Mullins/Townend, but model marks her slightly Below Fair at current prices.
Details
- J: Aidan Kelly
- T: Padraig Roche
- Trip: 2m 4f 50y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Consistent soft-ground handicapper with solid big-field form and a strong staying profile. Valuable claim enhances a well-treated mark. Above Fair value with strong win and each-way claims.
Details
- J: Danny Mullins
- T: Anthony Mullins
- Trip: 2m 4f 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Front-running type with previous soft-ground success. Fell when still involved last time; if allowed to dictate, could be hard to peg back. Above Fair value in a competitive heat.
Details
- J: Liam McKenna
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 2m 4f 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Soft/heavy-ground profile and prominent racing style suit this track. Well handicapped and aided by a claim; solid, dependable type who should be in the firing line late.
Details
- J: Sean Flanagan
- T: Paul Nolan
- Trip: 2m 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Soft and heavy-ground form checks out and she finishes strongly. Slight trip concern dropping back, but SecEff-J hints she’ll be powering up the hill. Unexposed and Above Fair on current mark.
Details
- J: Mike O’Connor
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Course winner with heavy-ground form and recent efforts in stronger races. Handicapped to strike and model rates him Fair value with strong place prospects.
Details
- J: Brian Hayes
- T: Philip Fenton
- Trip: 2m 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Course-and-distance winner now 2lb below his last winning mark. Reliable jumper and conditions ideal; Above Fair Each-Way angle in this field.
Details
- J: Mike O’Connor
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Impressive heavy-ground winner last time, with strong SecEff-J and subsequent winners boosting the form. Bold, forward-going style and a clear NP > IP edge make him the one to beat.
Details
- J: Mr D L Queally
- T: Declan Queally
- Trip: 2m 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 27%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent with proven Graded form and soft-ground ability. Rightful favourite on bare form, but the model flags him as slightly Below Fair at current odds.
Details
- J: Alex Harvey
- T: Anthony McCann
- Trip: 2m 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Soft-ground performer with respectable Grade 2 form. Clear third in on the figures and offers Above Fair Each-Way value in a small but select field.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m 4f 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Top-class hurdler with strong soft-ground credentials and high SecEff-J figures in last season’s wins. Comeback run forgivable; if near peak he sets the standard and rates Above Fair.
Details
- J: Paul Townend
- T: Mrs John Harrington
- Trip: 2m 4f 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Grade 1-placed mare whose strong closing sectionals make her a major threat if back to best. Pulled up last time but numbers say she’s the main danger at Fair value.
Details
- J: John Shinnick
- T: Mrs Lorna Fowler
- Trip: 2m 4f 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
In form and now tackling a stiff staying trip which looks a positive. Unexposed at this level and offers Above Fair place claims in a small but high-quality field.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: W P Mullins
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.1%
Analysis
Classy mare who won this race last year. Exceptional SecEff-J and 7lb allowance tilt this strongly in her favour. Above Fair value as the most likely winner.
Details
- J: Mike O’Connor
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.1%
Analysis
High-class two-miler with Champion Chase form. Bold-jumping, front-running style ensures a solid test; Fair value as the main danger.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107.1%
Analysis
Capable of high-class efforts when in rhythm. Prominent racer who could hold on for a place if jumping stands up. Above Fair Each-Way in a hot Grade 2.
Details
- J: Paul Townend
- T: W P Mullins
- Trip: 2m 1f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
French recruit with a superb hurdles record on soft ground. If jumping holds on chase debut, his class and strong SecEff-J make him very hard to beat. Above Fair at likely short odds.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: C A Murphy
- Trip: 2m 1f
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Point-to-point winner with valuable chasing experience already in the book. Soft-ground profile fits well and he looks the main danger with Above Fair Each-Way claims.
Details
- J: Simon Torrens
- T: Eddie & Patrick Harty
- Trip: 2m 1f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Triple point winner on soft/heavy, so this chasing test is right in his wheelhouse. Hurdles run is easily forgiven; wild-card with Above Fair place potential.
Details
- J: Mr H C Swan
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Point winner on soft and bumper form on heavy gives him a big edge in these conditions. Sets a high standard for these Pro/Am races and rates Above Fair on NP/IP.
Details
- J: Mr J L Gleeson
- T: Emmet Mullins
- Trip: 2m 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Easy point winner from a yard noted for ready bumpers. Form working out nicely and likely to race handily; Above Fair value as the chief rival to Lemmy Caution.
Details
- J: Jack O’Neill
- T: Philip Fenton
- Trip: 2m 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Heavy-ground bumper form reads well and his SecEff-J suggests a strong late run up the hill. Best of the rest and Above Fair for place purposes.
Analysis
Proven heavy-ground winner with assured stamina and a powerful SecEff-J profile for these conditions. Reliable jumper, clear NP > IP edge, and in-form trainer/jockey combo. This is the “run-that-wins” scenario the model likes most — back with confidence.