Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Tuesday 18 November 2025 • 9 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Callum Hutchinson
- T: Louise Allan
- Trip: 2m56y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Different Drum presents the best value profile with a normalized probability exceeding its implied.
Details
- J: Laura Pearson
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m56y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Prince Quattro is the topweight and logical contender based on recent form.
Details
- J: Aiden Brookes
- T: Mike Sowersby
- Trip: 2m56y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Arcimboldo is a speculative selection whose chance is better than his long odds suggest.
Details
- J: Jack Nicholls
- T: John & Sean Quinn
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
The Tunguska Event is the clear form pick following a C&D win and sets the standard.
Details
- J: Oliver Stammers
- T: Grant Tuer
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Yorkshire Queen is a consistent sort but is likely to find the favourite too strong on ratings.
Details
- J: William Pyle
- T: David & Nicola Barron
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Mereside Princess completes the shortlist in a race where the market principals are expected to dominate.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 88%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Clouds Hill is a solid favourite with strong form credentials from recent runs.
Details
- J: Pierre-Louis Jamin
- T: Hugo Palmer
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Monty Beau has experience and should be in the shake-up.
Details
- J: Kevin Stott
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Forest Caper brings handicap experience to this novice contest and is respected.
Details
- J: Callum Hutchinson
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 14%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
King’s Lynn is well-handicapped based on his close C&D second in a stronger contest and offers value.
Details
- J: Oliver Stammers
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 88%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Benacre is consistent and enters calculations in this deeper handicap.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
The favourite Unassuming is respected but his normalized probability is below his implied, indicating poor value.
Details
- J: William Carver
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Society Girl is selected to reverse form with Hoseki based on expected improvement from her debut.
Details
- J: Harry Burns
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Hoseki is the obvious danger and form pick from a powerful yard.
Details
- J: Tyler Heard
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Brilliant Star, from a top stable, is an interesting lightly-raced contender.
Details
- J: Oliver Stammers
- T: Grant Tuer
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Ardaddy is the form pick after a recent win and offers strong value with a high normalized probability.
Details
- J: Jack Garritty
- T: Liam Bailey
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Pit Boss is consistent and merits serious consideration.
Details
- J: Duran Fentiman
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Law Degree is another in-form runner who can challenge strongly.
Details
- J: William Pyle
- T: Kevin Frost
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Vault Of Heaven is attractively weighted and has a strong chance on his peak form.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: Gemma Tutty
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Mister Sky Blue is a consistent favourite but faces a stern test under his mark.
Details
- J: Faye McManoman
- T: Nigel Tinkler
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Athollblair Boy is a course winner who offers each-way value at bigger prices.
Details
- J: Duran Fentiman
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Glendown is selected to capitalise on his current mark, having won off a higher rating.
Details
- J: Tom Kiely-Marshall
- T: Julie Camacho
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Korroor is the justified favourite but faces competition in a busy sprint.
Details
- J: Andrea Pinna
- T: Joey Ramsden
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Bishop’s Glory is a course specialist who demands respect at this level.
Details
- J: William Pyle
- T: Ruth Carr
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Alligator Alley has a recent C&D win to his name and is taken to return to winning ways.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: Kevin Ryan
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Blue Lakota is in good form and is a major player.
Details
- J: Harry Smith
- T: Declan Carroll
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Thankuappreciate arrives in winning form and cannot be discounted.
Analysis
Class 3 race fits the ideal profile, with strong C&D form and a value assessment of Above Fair.
King’s Lynn looks well-handicapped on a past high-level effort, and conditions are in his favour.
This is the Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.