Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Regency Security Claiming Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m3y
Racecourse: Fakenham
Time of Race: 2:15
First: Collingham
Age: 7
Weight: 11-9
Form: 11F13- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
Trainer: Archie Watson
Trainer RTF% Form: 30%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 117
TS: 112
Probability: High
Second: Annexation
Age: 9
Weight: 11-8
Form: 25U/4- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good
Jockey: Lilly Pinchin
Trainer: Tony Carroll
Trainer RTF% Form: 31%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 129
TS: –
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Collingham has strong recent form and a high OR, making him the favorite. Annexation has potential but lacks consistency.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Annexation’s stamina may come into play, but Collingham’s speed should prevail on good going.
Race Name: Alan Boswell Group Mares’ Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 2m5f44y
Racecourse: Fakenham
Time of Race: 2:45
First: Miss Fedora
Age: 6
Weight: 11-4
Form: 15415- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Ellis Collier
Trainer: Seamus Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 90
TS: 96
Probability: High
Second: Generous Scorpion
Age: 7
Weight: 11-3
Form: 33435- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good
Jockey: Theo Gillard
Trainer: Donald McCain
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 89
TS: –
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Miss Fedora’s recent form and jockey-trainer combo give her the edge. Generous Scorpion is consistent but lacks a recent win.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Generous Scorpion’s stamina could challenge Miss Fedora’s speed.
Race Name: Racing TV Mares’ Maiden Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m4f1y
Racecourse: Fakenham
Time of Race: 3:15
First: Claim Du Brizais
Age: 5
Weight: 11-6
Form: 2/331- (Strong recent form)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Skelton
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 51%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Very High
Second: Red Panda
Age: 6
Weight: 11-6
Form: /3535- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
Trainer: Charlie Longsdon
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 96
TS: 68
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Claim Du Brizais is the class act here with strong form. Red Panda is consistent but may lack the class to win.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Red Panda’s experience may help, but Claim Du Brizais should dominate.
Race Name: Racing TV Novices’ Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m4f1y
Racecourse: Fakenham
Time of Race: 3:45
First: Market House
Age: 5
Weight: 12-0
Form: /9907- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good
Jockey: Mr Alex Chadwick
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF% Form: 49%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 92
TS: 62
Probability: High
Second: Lenjoleur De Palma
Age: 4
Weight: 11-10
Form: 3443- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Mr Jack Andrews
Trainer: T Ellis
Trainer RTF% Form: 3%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 96
TS: 71
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Market House’s recent improvement and weight advantage make him the pick. Lenjoleur De Palma is consistent but may lack experience.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Lenjoleur De Palma’s stamina could challenge Market House’s speed.
Race Name: David Keith Memorial Veterans’ Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 3m38y
Racecourse: Fakenham
Time of Race: 4:15
First: Le Milos
Age: 10
Weight: 11-13
Form: 31674- (Strong recent form)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Skelton
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 51%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 140
TS: 124
Probability: High
Second: Glynn
Age: 11
Weight: 11-10
Form: 11243- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer: Anthony Honeyball
Trainer RTF% Form: 55%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 137
TS: 126
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Le Milos’ class and recent form make him the favorite. Glynn is consistent but may struggle with the distance.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Glynn’s stamina could challenge Le Milos’ speed.
Race Name: Norfolk National Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 3m5f24y
Racecourse: Fakenham
Time of Race: 4:50
First: Planned Paradise
Age: 9
Weight: 11-5
Form: P1425- (Strong recent form)
Going: Good
Jockey: Charlie Maggs
Trainer: Christian Williams
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 111
TS: 118
Probability: High
Second: Fever Dream
Age: 7
Weight: 10-11
Form: 83561- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Robert Dunne
Trainer: Christian Williams
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 103
TS: 103
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Planned Paradise’s recent form and TS make him the pick. Fever Dream is consistent but may lack the class to win.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Fever Dream’s stamina could challenge Planned Paradise’s speed.
Out of my analysis for Fakenham on the 06th of May 2025, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:
Horse: Planned Paradise
Age: 9
Weight: 11-5
Form: P1425- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 111
TS: 118
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Planned Paradise has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Planned Paradise presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Fakenham – 06th May 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
Regency Security Claiming Hurdle (14:15)
- Annexation (Probability: 80%)
- Collingham (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Alan Boswell Group Mares’ Handicap Chase (14:45)
- Kate Madrik (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Miss Fedora (Probability: 76%) [Flagged: <80%]
Racing TV Mares’ Maiden Hurdle (15:15)
- Back In The Bay (Probability: 82%)
- Claim Du Brizais (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Racing TV Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (15:45)
- Market House (Probability: 79%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Lenjoleur De Palma (Probability: 77%) [Flagged: <80%]
David Keith Memorial Veterans’ Handicap Chase (16:15)
- Le Milos (Probability: 85%)
- Glynn (Probability: 80%)
Norfolk National Handicap Chase (16:50)
- Chemical Warfare (Probability: 83%)
- Fever Dream (Probability: 80%)
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Annexation (14:15, Fakenham, 80%)
- Back In The Bay (15:15, Fakenham, 82%)
- Le Milos (16:15, Fakenham, 85%)
- Chemical Warfare (16:50, Fakenham, 83%)
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Annexation (14:15, Fakenham)
- Back In The Bay (15:15, Fakenham)
- Le Milos (16:15, Fakenham)
- Chemical Warfare (16:50, Fakenham)
Doubles
- Annexation + Back In The Bay
- Annexation + Le Milos
- Annexation + Chemical Warfare
- Back In The Bay + Le Milos
- Back In The Bay + Chemical Warfare
- Le Milos + Chemical Warfare
Trebles
- Annexation + Back In The Bay + Le Milos
- Annexation + Back In The Bay + Chemical Warfare
- Annexation + Le Milos + Chemical Warfare
- Back In The Bay + Le Milos + Chemical Warfare
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Annexation + Back In The Bay + Le Milos + Chemical Warfare
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Chemical Warfare (83%) –
- Highest Probability: Le Milos (85%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Fever Dream (80%) –
