Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

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Race Name: Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Ascot
Time of Race: 1:30
First: Military Code
Age: 2
Weight: 9-10
Form: 23D (Consistent performances)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF% Form: 72%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 80
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Celestial King
Age: 2
Weight: 9-4
Form: 67 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: David Egan
Trainer: Raphael E Freire
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Military Code has shown strong early form and benefits from the expertise of Charlie Appleby and William Buick. Celestial King is unexposed but has potential.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Military Code’s speed may still prevail, but Celestial King could close the gap.

Race Name: Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% British EBF Fillies’ Handicap
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Ascot
Time of Race: 2:05
First: Rainbows Edge
Age: 4
Weight: 9-12
Form: 112- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Trainer RTF% Form: 66%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 99
TS: 67
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Arisaig
Age: 4
Weight: 9-7
Form: 865-55 (Needs to find improvement)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 94
TS: 94
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Rainbows Edge is class-dropping and well-weighted. Arisaig is consistent but may struggle to match the favorite.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Rainbows Edge’s stamina will be key.

Race Name: Schweppes Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap)
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Ascot
Time of Race: 2:40
First: Qirat
Age: 4
Weight: 9-4
Form: 65122- (Strong recent form)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Trainer RTF% Form: 70%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 99
TS: 99
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Roi De France
Age: 4
Weight: 9-11
Form: 012-32 (Progressive)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Trainer RTF% Form: 66%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 106
TS: 101
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Qirat is unexposed and well-handicapped. Roi De France is classy but carries more weight.
Scenario Analysis: A faster pace could suit Qirat’s closing style.

Race Name: Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
Race Distance: 1m3f211y
Racecourse: Ascot
Time of Race: 3:15
First: Turquino
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 11 (Unbeaten, progressive)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Trainer RTF% Form: 51%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: –
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Fireblade
Age: 4
Weight: 9-5
Form: 23-231 (Consistent)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Dylan Cunha
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 85
TS: 85
Probability: Second Horse High
Analysis: Turquino remains unbeaten and looks a progressive type. Fireblade is consistent but may need to improve to beat the selection.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Fireblade’s proven stamina could come into play.

Race Name: Carey Group Handicap
Race Distance: 1m1f212y
Racecourse: Ascot
Time of Race: 3:50
First: Kokanee
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 655-1 (Improving)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Ed Dunlop
Trainer RTF% Form: 47%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 78
TS: 91
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Chartwell Jock
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 8-212 (Progressive)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Trainer RTF% Form: 51%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 82
TS: 80
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Kokanee’s recent win was impressive and the step up in trip should suit. Chartwell Jock is progressing but may need more time.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Kokanee’s stamina will be an asset.

Race Name: Mariner Systems Fillies’ Handicap
Race Distance: 1m1f212y
Racecourse: Ascot
Time of Race: 4:25
First: Morrophore
Age: 4
Weight: 10-5
Form: 361-3 (Consistent)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Luke Catton
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Trainer RTF% Form: 66%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 88
TS: 44
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Rock Camelot
Age: 3
Weight: 8-4
Form: 52-52 (Progressive)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 74
TS: 81
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Morrophore is class-dropping and well-weighted. Rock Camelot is improving but may need this run.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Morrophore’s experience will be key.

Race Name: Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Blue Ribbon Handicap (Div I)
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Ascot
Time of Race: 5:00
First: Arnaz
Age: 4
Weight: 9-1
Form: 3230-2 (Consistent)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Ed Walker
Trainer RTF% Form: 69%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 72
TS: 83
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Northcliff
Age: 5
Weight: 9-9
Form: 454511 (Progressive)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Luke Catton
Trainer: Thomas Faulkner
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 80
TS: 82
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Arnaz is consistent and well-drawn. Northcliff is progressive but carries more weight.
Scenario Analysis: A strong pace will suit Arnaz’s closing style.

Race Name: Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Blue Ribbon Handicap (Div II)
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Ascot
Time of Race: 5:35
First: Collusion
Age: 4
Weight: 8-11
Form: 4-5111 (Progressive)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: David Egan
Trainer: Dylan Cunha
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 68
TS: 76
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Sondad
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 110-82 (Consistent)
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Joanna Mason
Trainer: Michael & David Easterby
Trainer RTF% Form: 41%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 77
TS: 63
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Collusion is improving rapidly and well-weighted. Sondad is consistent but may need to improve.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Collusion’s speed will be an advantage.

Out of my analysis for Ascot on the 10th of May 2025, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:

Horse: Qirat
Age: 4
Weight: 9-4
Form: 65122- (Strong recent form)
OR: 99
TS: 99
RTF’s: Ran To Form

Form and Improvement: Qirat has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.

In summary, Qirat presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Ascot – 10th May 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Novice Stakes (13:30)

• Military Code (Probability: 80%)
• Celestial King (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% British EBF Fillies’ Handicap (14:05)

• Rainbows Edge (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
• Arisaig (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

Schweppes Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) (14:40)

• Roi De France (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
• Qirat (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Handicap (15:15)

• Fireblade (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]
• Ten Pounds (Probability: 65%) [Flagged: <80%]

Carey Group Handicap (15:50)

• Power Fizz (Probability: 80%)
• Brave Mission (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

Mariner Systems Fillies’ Handicap (16:25)

• Giselle (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
• Dance And Glance (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Blue Ribbon Handicap Div I (17:00)

• Counsel (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]
• Invincible Speed (Probability: 65%) [Flagged: <80%]

Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Blue Ribbon Handicap Div II (17:35)

• Jimmy Speaking (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]
• Collusion (Probability: 65%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Military Code (13:30, Ascot, 80%)
2. Power Fizz (15:50, Ascot, 80%)
3. Rainbows Edge (14:05, Ascot, 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
4. Roi De France (14:40, Ascot, 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Note: Only two horses meet the ≥80% threshold. Two selections are included with probabilities slightly below 80%.

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Military Code (13:30, Ascot)
2. Power Fizz (15:50, Ascot)
3. Rainbows Edge (14:05, Ascot)
4. Roi De France (14:40, Ascot)

Doubles

1. Military Code + Power Fizz
2. Military Code + Rainbows Edge
3. Military Code + Roi De France
4. Power Fizz + Rainbows Edge
5. Power Fizz + Roi De France
6. Rainbows Edge + Roi De France

Trebles

1. Military Code + Power Fizz + Rainbows Edge
2. Military Code + Power Fizz + Roi De France
3. Military Code + Rainbows Edge + Roi De France
4. Power Fizz + Rainbows Edge + Roi De France

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Military Code + Power Fizz + Rainbows Edge + Roi De France

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: English Oak (Probability: 65%) – Despite a recent dip in form, the booking of top jockey William Buick and previous success at Ascot make this 11-1 shot a value bet .
• Highest Probability: Military Code (80%) – A strong debut winner, Military Code is the percentage call in the opening race .
• Alternative if Needed: Giselle (Probability: 75%) – Aidan O’Brien’s runner in the Mariner Systems Fillies’ Handicap is expected to perform well .

Final Tip: Focus on horses with proven track records and strong jockey bookings. While only two selections meet the ≥80% threshold, including slightly lower probability horses with compelling form and conditions can enhance the Lucky 15 strategy. Always bet responsibly.