Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Gowran Park Golf Club Maiden (3yo)
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Gowran Park
Time of Race: 3:57
First: Storm Piece
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 224-2 (Consistent performances)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: G M Lyons
Trainer RTF% Form: 70%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: 76
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Kilmood Susan
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 2245-2 (Consistent performances)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Nicola Burns
Trainer: Daniel James Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 78
TS: 68
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Storm Piece has shown strong form in recent races, including a close second last time out. Kilmood Susan is consistent but may struggle to match the speed of the favorite. The heavy going favors Storm Piece’s stamina.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens further, Kilmood Susan could close the gap, but Storm Piece’s class should prevail.
Race Name: Dining Packages At Gowran Park Handicap (3yo 0-60)
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Gowran Park
Time of Race: 4:30
First: Weegeebear
Age: 3
Weight: 9-12
Form: -76101 (Improving)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Adam Caffrey
Trainer: Adrian McGuinness
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 60
TS: 40
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Dance For Chester
Age: 3
Weight: 9-12
Form: 7070-1 (Inconsistent but recent win)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Jack Kearney
Trainer: Stephen Thorne
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 60
TS: 56
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Weegeebear has shown recent improvement and handles heavy ground well. Dance For Chester is unpredictable but could place if replicating his latest win.
Scenario Analysis: If the rain eases, Dance For Chester may challenge, but Weegeebear’s recent form gives him the edge.
Race Name: Thomastown Handicap (4yo+ 0-60)
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Gowran Park
Time of Race: 5:05
First: Si Senior
Age: 4
Weight: 10-1
Form: 434844 (Consistent)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Jack Kearney
Trainer: Patrick Magee
Trainer RTF% Form: 33%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 59
TS: 36
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Still She Blooms
Age: 4
Weight: 9-12
Form: 835-35 (Needs improvement)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: Chris Timmons
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 56
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Si Senior is consistent and handles heavy ground. Still She Blooms has potential but needs to step up.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms slightly, Still She Blooms could threaten, but Si Senior’s experience is key.
Race Name: Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap (3yo+)
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Gowran Park
Time of Race: 5:40
First: Indigo Five
Age: 6
Weight: 10-0
Form: 255-41 (Strong recent win)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Wesley Joyce
Trainer: John James Feane
Trainer RTF% Form: 100%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 98
TS: 88
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Mataariki
Age: 4
Weight: 9-0
Form: 1030- (Unproven but talented)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 59%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 84
TS: 99
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Indigo Five is the class act here, with proven form in heavy conditions. Mataariki is unexposed but faces a tough task.
Scenario Analysis: If Mataariki handles the ground, she could place, but Indigo Five is the clear favorite.
Race Name: Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Fillies Maiden (3yo)
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Gowran Park
Time of Race: 6:12
First: Dahlia Noir
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 2835-5 (Consistent)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Gavin Ryan
Trainer: Donnacha Aidan O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 80
TS: 61
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Lady Lilac
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 434 (Improving)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Gary Carroll
Trainer: Joseph G Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 52
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Dahlia Noir has consistent form and handles heavy ground. Lady Lilac is improving but lacks experience.
Scenario Analysis: If Lady Lilac steps up, she could challenge, but Dahlia Noir’s consistency is key.
Race Name: Irish Injured Jockeys Handicap (3yo)
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Gowran Park
Time of Race: 6:42
First: Tam Lin
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: -51351 (Strong recent win)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: Daniel James Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 70
TS: 58
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Annie’s Angel
Age: 3
Weight: 9-12
Form: 51- (Unproven but potential)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Wayne Hassett
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 59%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 80
TS: 72
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Tam Lin’s recent win marks him as the one to beat. Annie’s Angel is unexposed but faces a tough task.
Scenario Analysis: If Annie’s Angel handles the step up in class, she could place, but Tam Lin is the standout.
Race Name: @GowranPark1 Handicap (4yo+ 0-60)
Race Distance: 1m5f160y
Racecourse: Gowran Park
Time of Race: 7:12
First: Elle Dorado Rock
Age: 7
Weight: 10-0
Form: 0/25/1 (Improving)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Daniel King
Trainer: A J Martin
Trainer RTF% Form: 23%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 57
TS: –
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Dumb Love
Age: 5
Weight: 9-13
Form: 94544- (Consistent)
Going: Heavy
Jockey: Nicola Burns
Trainer: Gerard O’Leary
Trainer RTF% Form: 7%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 56
TS: 47
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Elle Dorado Rock is improving and handles heavy ground. Dumb Love is consistent but may lack the class.
Scenario Analysis: If Dumb Love finds extra stamina, she could challenge, but Elle Dorado Rock’s recent form is persuasive.
Best Value for Money Horse at Gowran Park (23rd April 2025)
Out of my analysis for Gowran Park, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:
Horse: Storm Piece
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 224-2 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 86
TS: 76
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Storm Piece has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The heavy conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Storm Piece presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Gowran Park – 23rd April 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
Gowran Park Golf Club Maiden (15:57)
- Storm Piece (86%)
- Gran Habano (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Dining Packages At Gowran Park Handicap (16:30)
- Dance For Chester (85%)
- Weegeebear (82%)
Thomastown Handicap (17:05)
- Si Senior (80%)
- Still She Blooms (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap (17:40)
- Indigo Five (88%)
- Mataariki (84%)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Fillies Maiden (18:12)
- Dahlia Noir (90%)
- Echinacea (80%)
Irish Injured Jockeys Handicap (18:42)
- Annie’s Angel (85%)
- Tam Lin (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
GowranPark1 Handicap (19:12)
- Dumb Love (82%)
- Your Honor (79%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Dahlia Noir (18:12, Gowran Park, 90%)
- Indigo Five (17:40, Gowran Park, 88%)
- Storm Piece (15:57, Gowran Park, 86%)
- Dance For Chester (16:30, Gowran Park, 85%)
Note: All selections meet or exceed the 80% probability threshold.
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Dahlia Noir (18:12, Gowran Park)
- Indigo Five (17:40, Gowran Park)
- Storm Piece (15:57, Gowran Park)
- Dance For Chester (16:30, Gowran Park)
Doubles
- Dahlia Noir + Indigo Five
- Dahlia Noir + Storm Piece
- Dahlia Noir + Dance For Chester
- Indigo Five + Storm Piece
- Indigo Five + Dance For Chester
- Storm Piece + Dance For Chester
Trebles
- Dahlia Noir + Indigo Five + Storm Piece
- Dahlia Noir + Indigo Five + Dance For Chester
- Dahlia Noir + Storm Piece + Dance For Chester
- Indigo Five + Storm Piece + Dance For Chester
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Dahlia Noir + Indigo Five + Storm Piece + Dance For Chester
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Dance For Chester (85%) –
- Highest Probability: Dahlia Noir (90%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Annie’s Angel (85%) –
