Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Feathers Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 1m7f169y
Racecourse: Ludlow
Time of Race: 2:38
First: More Coko
Age: 5
Weight: 12-0
Form: 1112 Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Brian Hayes
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 30%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 132
TS: 84
Probability: Very High
Second: Brendas Asking
Age: 7
Weight: 10-9
Form: P13250 Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Nathan Andrews
Trainer: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
Trainer RTF% Form: 20%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 116
TS: 124
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: More Coko stands out with a strong OR of 132 and consistent form (1112), backed by W P Mullins’ high-performing stable. Its recent performances and top speed of 84 suggest it thrives on Good to Soft ground. Brendas Asking, with a solid TS of 124 and a course-and-distance win, is a reliable contender for second, though its form (P13250) indicates less consistency than More Coko. The field is competitive, but More Coko’s metrics and trainer form give it a clear edge. Don’t Mind If I Do (OR 121, TS 114) could challenge but lacks the same level of recent success.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground turns softer, More Coko’s proven adaptability strengthens its position. On firmer ground, Brendas Asking’s course experience could close the gap slightly.
Race Name: Heath Farm Meats Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m7f174y
Racecourse: Ludlow
Time of Race: 3:08
First: The Bold Thady
Age: 8
Weight: 11-5
Form: P36124 Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Harriet Tucker
Trainer: Neil Mulholland
Trainer RTF% Form: 25%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 108
TS: 106
Probability: High
Second: Doctor Midas
Age: 5
Weight: 11-4
Form: 5523 Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Paul O’Brien
Trainer: Henrietta C Knight
Trainer RTF% Form: 15%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 107
TS: 60
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: The Bold Thady’s recent form (P36124) and OR of 108 make it a strong contender over this longer distance, with a TS of 106 indicating solid pace. Neil Mulholland’s stable is in decent form, and the horse’s consistency on Good to Soft ground is a plus. Doctor Midas, with a recent third and OR of 107, shows promise but lacks the same stamina for 2m7f, reflected in its lower TS of 60. Kitesurfer (OR 113) could compete but has been inconsistent lately. The Bold Thady’s experience and metrics give it the edge.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground would favor The Bold Thady’s stamina. If conditions firm up, Doctor Midas’s lighter frame could improve its placing chances.
Race Name: Crest Hotels Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 2m7f171y
Racecourse: Ludlow
Time of Race: 3:38
First: Ultra Beat
Age: 7
Weight: 11-3
Form: 2F35U1 Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Stan Sheppard
Trainer: Henry Daly
Trainer RTF% Form: 18%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 112
TS: 107
Probability: High
Second: Tommys Charm
Age: 7
Weight: 11-11
Form: 212-52 Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Richard Patrick
Trainer: Kerry Lee
Trainer RTF% Form: 22%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 120
TS: 78
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Ultra Beat’s recent win (2F35U1) and TS of 107 highlight its suitability for this distance and ground. Henry Daly’s stable adds reliability, and the OR of 112 is competitive. Tommys Charm, with an OR of 120 and form of 212-52, is a strong contender but its lower TS of 78 suggests less pace. Fuji Flight (OR 120) has potential but lacks recent form. Ultra Beat’s balance of speed and stamina makes it the top pick.
Scenario Analysis: On softer ground, Ultra Beat’s recent success holds firm. Firmer conditions could see Tommys Charm’s higher OR give it a slight edge.
Race Name: Cross On The Getaway Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m5f55y
Racecourse: Ludlow
Time of Race: 4:10
First: Rockola
Age: 5
Weight: 12-0
Form: 2-4116 Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Tom Cannon
Trainer: Alan King
Trainer RTF% Form: 28%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 100
TS: 73
Probability: High
Second: Manala
Age: 6
Weight: 10-11
Form: 2-863 Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Charlie Todd
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 30%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 83
TS: 70
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Rockola’s form (2-4116) and OR of 100 make it a standout, with Alan King’s strong stable boosting confidence. Its TS of 73 is decent for this class, and it handles Good to Soft well. Manala, trained by Dan Skelton, has a lower OR of 83 but shows promise with a recent third (2-863). Its TS of 70 is close to Rockola’s, but its lighter weight could help. Versace Twentyone (OR 100) is a threat but less consistent. Rockola’s metrics and trainer form give it the edge.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground favors Rockola’s proven form. Firmer conditions could benefit Manala’s lighter frame and Skelton’s tactical approach.
Race Name: Rees Jones,1619 Open Hunters’ Chase
Race Distance: 2m7f171y
Racecourse: Ludlow
Time of Race: 4:40
First: Captain Tommy
Age: 11
Weight: 12-6
Form: -PP112 Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Mr Henry Crow
Trainer: Fred Timmis
Trainer RTF% Form: 15%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 122
TS: 88
Probability: High
Second: Yccs Portocervo
Age: 10
Weight: 12-6
Form: -110PP Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Miss Gina Andrews
Trainer: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
Trainer RTF% Form: 25%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 131
TS: 85
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Captain Tommy’s recent form (-PP112) and OR of 122 make it a strong pick, with a TS of 88 showing good pace for this distance. Its course-and-distance win adds confidence. Yccs Portocervo, with a higher OR of 131, has struggled recently (-110PP) but its TS of 85 and trainer form keep it in contention. Ashtown Lad (OR 126) could challenge but lacks recent runs. Captain Tommy’s balance of form and course experience gives it the edge.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground suits Captain Tommy’s proven record. Firmer conditions could see Yccs Portocervo’s higher OR make it more competitive.
Race Name: Suzuki ‘King Of Quads’ Open National Hunt Flat Race
Race Distance: 1m7f169y
Racecourse: Ludlow
Time of Race: 5:15
First: Jorah d’Alma
Age: 6
Weight: 11-3
Form: 1- Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Mr Ben Sutton
Trainer: Fergal O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 22%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: High
Second: The Egyptian Ginge
Age: 4
Weight: 10-9
Form: 94 Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Mr Jamie Neild
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Trainer RTF% Form: 20%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 85
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Jorah d’Alma’s debut win (1-) and Fergal O’Brien’s solid stable make it the top pick, despite limited recent data. Its suitability for Good to Soft ground is assumed based on trainer success. The Egyptian Ginge (94) shows promise with a TS of 85 and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ experience in bumpers. Not At That Price (form 4) is a contender but lacks the same pedigree. Jorah d’Alma’s potential and trainer form give it the edge in a speculative field.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground would favor Jorah d’Alma’s untested stamina. Firmer conditions could suit The Egyptian Ginge’s lighter weight and speed.
Best Value for Money Horse at Ludlow on 23rd April 2025
Out of my analysis for Ludlow, The Bold Thady shows the best value for money based on performance metrics, ignoring odds.
Age: 8
Weight: 11-5
Form: P36124 Consistent performances
OR: 108
TS: 106
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: The Bold Thady has shown strong recent form (P36124) with a win and consistent placings, indicating reliability. Its performance over longer distances like 2m7f174y is a strength, and its OR of 108 is competitive in the Heath Farm Meats Handicap Hurdle. The TS of 106 reflects solid pace, and its ability to run to form consistently adds to its appeal.
Race Conditions: The Good to Soft ground suits The Bold Thady, as evidenced by its past success on similar surfaces. Neil Mulholland’s 25% RTF% form and Harriet Tucker’s 7lb claim enhance its prospects. The track conditions and distance align well with its stamina and experience.
Additional Factors: Compared to other contenders like More Coko (OR 132) or Ultra Beat (OR 112), The Bold Thady’s metrics are slightly less dominant, but its consistency, stamina, and suitability for the race distance make it stand out. Jockey and trainer synergy, combined with a competitive OR and TS, position it as a strong performer without relying on market odds.
In summary, The Bold Thady presents the best value for money, offering a robust balance of recent form, stamina, and track suitability, making it a top contender in its race based purely on performance data.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Ludlow – 23rd April 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
14:38 – Feathers Novices’ Hurdle (Class 4)
- More Coko (Willie Mullins) – 82%
- Don’t Mind If I Do (Alan King) – 75% [Flagged: <80%]
15:08 – Heath Farm Meats Handicap Hurdle (Class 4)
- Kitesurfer (Jamie Snowden) – 78% [Flagged: <80%]
- Ashtown Lad (O Greenall & J Guerriero) – 72% [Flagged: <80%]
15:38 – Crest Hotels Handicap Chase (Class 4)
- Ultra Beat (Henry Daly) – 80%
- Tommys Charm (Kerry Lee) – 76% [Flagged: <80%]
16:10 – Cross On The Getaway Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 5)
- Game On Babe (Fergal O’Brien) – 78% [Flagged: <80%]
- Manala (Dan Skelton) – 75% [Flagged: <80%]
16:40 – Rees Jones Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 4)
- Captain Tommy (Fred Timmis) – 70% [Flagged: <80%]
- Yccs Portocervo (Dr R Newland & J Insole) – 68% [Flagged: <80%]
17:15 – Suzuki ‘King Of Quads’ Open NH Flat Race (Class 4)
- Jorah D’alma (Fergal O’Brien) – 78% [Flagged: <80%]
- Madajovy (Dan Skelton) – 74% [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- More Coko (14:38, Ludlow, 82%)
- Ultra Beat (15:38, Ludlow, 80%)
- Game On Babe (16:10, Ludlow, 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Jorah D’alma (17:15, Ludlow, 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Note: Only two horses meet the ≥80% threshold. Selections 3 and 4 are included based on their strong form and potential, despite being slightly below the threshold.
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- More Coko (14:38, Ludlow)
- Ultra Beat (15:38, Ludlow)
- Game On Babe (16:10, Ludlow)
- Jorah D’alma (17:15, Ludlow)
Doubles
- More Coko + Ultra Beat
- More Coko + Game On Babe
- More Coko + Jorah D’alma
- Ultra Beat + Game On Babe
- Ultra Beat + Jorah D’alma
- Game On Babe + Jorah D’alma
Trebles
- More Coko + Ultra Beat + Game On Babe
- More Coko + Ultra Beat + Jorah D’alma
- More Coko + Game On Babe + Jorah D’alma
- Ultra Beat + Game On Babe + Jorah D’alma
Four-Fold Accumulator
- More Coko + Ultra Beat + Game On Babe + Jorah D’alma
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Game On Babe (78%) –
- Highest Probability: More Coko (82%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Tommys Charm (76%) –
