Bet Smart & Win — Aintree Race Preview
Saturday 8 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Harry Derham
- Trip: 2m 4f
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: 5.41
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Soft/heavy form and strong finishing effort at Chepstow point to stamina and efficiency. NP > IP flags clear Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
- T: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
- Trip: 2m 4f
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: 2.75
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Irish point winner with potential but market leans heavily; NP < IP leaves him Below Fair on current quotes.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 4f
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: 7.52
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Consistent and reliable; NP ≈ IP keeps him around Fair/Below Fair with others offering better edge.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 3m 149y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: 4.50
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Proven stayer with solid SecEff-J; NP ≈ IP keeps him around Fair with a competitive profile.
Details
- J: Stan Sheppard
- T: Tom Lacey
- Trip: 3m 149y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: 3.00
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Course form and prominent style suit, but NP < IP marks him Below Fair at current prices.
Details
- J: Patrick Wadge
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 3m 149y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: 7.52
- Overround: 107.8%
Analysis
Comes here in form with staying credentials; NP ≈ IP leaves him around Fair.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Rebecca Curtis
- Trip: 3m 210y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: 3.50
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Stays well and handles conditions; first time over fences tempers enthusiasm at slightly cramped odds.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 3m 210y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: 4.00
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Up in trip looks right; profile suggests strong late work, though NP trails IP slightly.
Details
- J: Richard Patrick
- T: Clive Boultbee-Brooks
- Trip: 3m 210y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: 10.00
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Chase experience and strong SecEff-J make him a live outsider at Fair-ish odds.
Details
- J: Ciaran Gethings
- T: Jane Williams
- Trip: 1m 7f 176y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: 5.99
- Overround: 109.2%
Analysis
Front-running, progressive chaser with potent SecEff-J; ideal track and trip make him a standout.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 1m 7f 176y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: 3.50
- Overround: 109.2%
Analysis
Solid profile and accurate probabilities; fully Fair at the head of the market.
Details
- J: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
- T: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
- Trip: 1m 7f 176y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: 5.99
- Overround: 109.2%
Analysis
Competitive type but NP < IP puts him on the short side versus chance.
Details
- J: Jack Tudor
- T: David Pipe
- Trip: 2m 5f 19y (National Course)
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: 6.99
- Overround: 112.1%
Analysis
Last year’s winner with standout SecEff-J over these fences; risk/reward profile suits Each-Way more than win at current IP.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
- Trip: 2m 5f 19y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: 5.49
- Overround: 112.1%
Analysis
Progressive and versatile; again NP < IP nudges him into Below Fair but he’s high on the shortlist.
Details
- J: Robert Dunne
- T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
- Trip: 2m 5f 19y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: 10.00
- Overround: 112.1%
Analysis
Deep stayer with late gains; Below Fair strictly on NP/IP but interesting EW at bigger prices.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 2m 209y
- Trainer RTF%: 79%
- Odds: 3.50
- Overround: 111.4%
Analysis
Unexposed and shaped well; mark could be lenient, but IP edges above NP so he’s a touch short.
Details
- J: Jonathan England
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 2m 209y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: 10.00
- Overround: 111.4%
Analysis
Likeable and consistent; more place than win value on raw percentages.
Details
- J: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
- T: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
- Trip: 2m 209y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: 10.00
- Overround: 111.4%
Analysis
Capable on his day; ratings say he’s priced a shade short versus win chance.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Faye Bramley
- Trip: 2m 209y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: 3.00
- Overround: 113.7%
Analysis
Key soft-ground bumper form but market has tightened; NP well below IP.
Details
- J: Miss Brodie Hampson
- T: Archie Watson
- Trip: 2m 209y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: 4.00
- Overround: 113.7%
Analysis
Sets a decent standard but offered at Below Fair on the model.
Details
- J: Luke Scott
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trip: 2m 209y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: 9.01
- Overround: 113.7%
Analysis
Well-bred and from a shrewd yard; speculative with NP still shy of IP.
Analysis
Strong front-running SecEff-J profile, ideal sharp 2m trip, and proven chase form on similar ground. With the model rating him a high-confidence player in a manageable field, he earns Nap status.