Bet Smart & Win — Ascot Race Preview
Saturday 01 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: James Turner
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m3f63y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: 11/4
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
At The Oche presents the strongest value profile with a significant positive discrepancy between its Normalized and Implied probabilities. Handicap debut on a lenient mark makes him the one to beat.
Details
- J: Toby McCain-Mitchell
- T: Alastair Ralph
- Trip: 2m3f63y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 8/1
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Mount Anglesby is a proven performer in this company with solid each-way claims. The value rating suggests he’s overpriced in the market.
Details
- J: Freddie Gordon
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m3f63y
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds: 11/2
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Akimos brings top connections and proven ability. The Above Fair value rating makes him a solid contender despite the penalty.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m2f181y
- Trainer RTF%: 32%
- Odds: 3/1
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Lylian is selected for the top spot based on potential for improvement and a fair value assessment. The unexposed 4yo showed jumping promise in France.
Details
- J: Miss Olive Nicholls
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m2f181y
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: 9/4
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Viroflay is the class angle but offers less value. The Nicholls yard is in form and he commands respect in this small field.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m2f181y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 2/1
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
No Questions Asked is a solid contender in a small but select field. The Above Fair value rating suggests he’s worth considering against the favorites.
Details
- J: Ned Fox
- T: Venetia Williams
- Trip: 2m172y
- Trainer RTF%: 143%
- Odds: 5/1
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Martator gets the nod based on the trainer’s superb record in this race and an Above Fair value rating. Last year’s winner should be raring to go.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m172y
- Trainer RTF%: 152%
- Odds: 100/30
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
L’Eau du Sud is the clear form pick but is penalized on value. Still commands respect as the market leader in this competitive handicap.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Emma Lavelle
- Trip: 2m172y
- Trainer RTF%: 143%
- Odds: 13/2
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
General Medrano represents a live each-way chance at an attractive price. The Above Fair value rating makes him appealing for place purposes.
Details
- J: Nico de Boinville
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 1m7f157y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: 10/11
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Soomaroy is a short-priced favourite for a powerful connection and is the most likely winner, though his value is rated Below Fair with IP exceeding NP.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Harry Derham
- Trip: 1m7f157y
- Trainer RTF%: 86%
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Military Alliance offers better value than the favourite and represents the main danger. The Above Fair rating makes him appealing for each-way purposes.
Details
- J: Bryan Carver
- T: Harry Fry
- Trip: 1m7f157y
- Trainer RTF%: 86%
- Odds: 9/2
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Trustintimes is a credible rival but has work to do to trouble the principals. The Fair value rating suggests the market has his chances accurately priced.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Emma Lavelle
- Trip: 1m7f157y
- Trainer RTF%: 130%
- Odds: 6/1
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Indemnity is a horse in form seeking a four-timer and is awarded an Above Fair value rating, making him a compelling selection despite the handicapper’s reaction.
Details
- J: Brendan Powell
- T: Joe Tizzard
- Trip: 1m7f157y
- Trainer RTF%: 117%
- Odds: 7/2
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Alexei is the market leader and a major player. The Above Fair value rating suggests he’s still worth backing despite being well found in the market.
Details
- J: James Turner
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 1m7f157y
- Trainer RTF%: 131%
- Odds: 7/1
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Moveit Like Minnie is another on a handy mark and offers value. The Above Fair rating makes her appealing at bigger odds in a competitive handicap.
Details
- J: Mike O’Connor
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m7f185y
- Trainer RTF%: 134%
- Odds: 11/2
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Le Coq Hardi is selected based on strong form from the Kerry National and an Above Fair value rating. The yard is happy to go again over 3m which signals confidence.
Details
- J: Brendan Powell
- T: Joe Tizzard
- Trip: 2m7f185y
- Trainer RTF%: 136%
- Odds: 100/30
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
The Changing Man is a justifiable favourite but is less attractive from a value perspective. Still commands plenty of respect as the market leader.
Details
- J: Jack Tudor
- T: David Pipe
- Trip: 2m7f185y
- Trainer RTF%: 141%
- Odds: 6/1
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Neon Moon is a lively outsider with solid claims. The Above Fair value rating makes him appealing for each-way purposes in a wide-open contest.
Details
- J: Liam Harrison
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 1m7f157y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 13/2
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
In a tricky concluding bumper, Run Away Joe is favoured due to his previous pointing experience and a positive value assessment. Finished his final Irish point on the front foot.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 1m7f157y
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: 2/1
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Hitintheheadlines heads the market and is an obvious danger. The Fair value rating suggests the market has accurately assessed his chances.
Details
- J: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
- T: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
- Trip: 1m7f157y
- Trainer RTF%: 92%
- Odds: 11/4
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Bathara is another market leader with solid claims. The Above Fair value rating makes her a credible alternative to the top two selections.
Analysis
Horse in peak form seeking a fourth consecutive victory, Above Fair value rating, favourable race conditions. This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.