Bet Smart & Win — Ayr Race Preview
Wednesday 12 November 2025 • 6 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 3m 20y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Proven stayer on testing ground; sound jumper; NP > IP value angle. EW 3pl/1/5 advised.
Details
- J: Callum Bewley
- T: Daragh Bourke
- Trip: 3m 20y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
Solid soft-ground profile; workable mark; reliable jumper; fair value.
Details
- J: Ross Chapman
- T: Stuart Coltherd
- Trip: 3m 20y
- Trainer RTF%: 27%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 107.9%
Analysis
C&D winner; track/ground suit; dependable completion rate; fair value.
Details
- J: William Maggs
- T: Andrew Hamilton
- Trip: 2m 3f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Recent winner on soft; stays well; strong SecEff-J; NP > IP value.
Details
- J: Ryan Mania
- T: Ian Duncan
- Trip: 2m 3f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Trip looks ideal; finishes off well; fair value if handling depth of field.
Details
- J: Peter Kavanagh
- T: Lisa Harrison
- Trip: 2m 3f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
C&D winner; dour stayer; course know-how a plus; fair value.
Details
- J: Richie McLernon
- T: Donald Whillans
- Trip: 2m 4f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 106.9%
Analysis
C&D winner; excels on soft; reliable profile; NP > IP makes him value.
Details
- J: Jamie Hamilton
- T: Ruth Jefferson
- Trip: 2m 4f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 106.9%
Analysis
Soft/heavy form; class-dropper; powerful SecEff-J when right; big player.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 4f 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 106.9%
Analysis
Up in trip likely to suit on pedigree; must jump cleanly; fair value.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 4f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 102.8%
Analysis
Classy hurdler; soft-ground suited; minor chase-debut caution only; model top pick.
Details
- J: Kielan Woods
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 4f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 102.8%
Analysis
Soft-ground winner; strong yard; likely main danger on chase debut.
Details
- J: Charlie Todd
- T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
- Trip: 2m 4f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 102.8%
Analysis
Likeable hurdler; stays; third string on figures but fair price.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Penalty to carry but sets form standard; strong soft-ground win; NP > IP.
Details
- J: Ciaran Gethings
- T: Alastair Ralph
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Place claims; stays on; solid each-way alternative at a price.
Details
- J: Kielan Woods
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Point/bumper winner; unexposed; pedigree suggests soft fine; interesting.
Details
- J: Eoin Staples
- T: Cian Collins
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 107.3%
Analysis
Irish bumper form sets the standard; strong SecEff-J; the one to beat.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 107.3%
Analysis
Debut promise; yard form; clear danger if stepping forward.
Details
- J: William Maggs
- T: Sandy Thomson
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (guide) —
- Overround: 107.3%
Analysis
Well-connected newcomer; yard adept with bumpers; market informative.
Analysis
Top-class hurdle form on soft; stamina assured; strong SecEff-J to the line; NP>IP edge; yard in form. Back with confidence.
Probability Explanation
Implied Probability represents the chance of winning based solely on bookmaker odds.
Normalized Probability adjusts this figure so all selections in a race total 100%, removing the bookmaker’s margin.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be higher than the Implied Probability.