How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20% but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners, and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Ayr 18/08/25
#4 Billy Bathgate (Form: 341932)
Strong staying profile at 1m6f and a recent runner-up effort signal peak readiness; small-field tactical pace should suit a grinder with track form. Win bet aligned with model edge.
Festive Day Dancin @ayrracecourse Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB Race)
#3 Media Darling (Form: —)
Solid profile with strong market respect; projects to travel well at 6f; sits within model’s winning band though value is only fair.
#6 Sapphire Princess (Form: 233)
Clear market standout on prior efforts but the price overstates win chance versus our fair; still the most likely danger with solid place claims.
#4 Portsoken (Form: 523)
Consistent placer with pace to hold a position; model rates below fair at current odds but retains top-3 prospects.
Pick: No Bet — Field <8 for E/W; leaders not Above Fair on value.
Summer Sunshine Handicap
#3 Cisco Disco (Form: 925451)
Forged clear over C&D last time and re-opposes several; tactical small field suits his running style; clear top on recent merit.
#1 Sophiesticate (Form: 552532)
Reliable placer with strong course rider; fair chance but price short of our fair line behind an in-form rival.
#2 We Still Believe (Form: 297257)
Erratic but has a small value edge at likely double-figure quotes; upgraded slightly on pace map.
Pick: No Bet — Top pick only Fair; field <8 for E/W terms.
Weddings At Western House Hotel Handicap
#4 Jannas Journey (Form: 431111)
Red-hot progressive sprinter-miler with a C&D streak; most likely winner, but price too short versus model fair.
#1 Al Muqdad (Form: 600004)
Mark eases and return to this trip could spark; fair alternative if favourite underperforms.
#3 Lexington Dash (Form: 0800-0)
Form-figure risk but well treated; value angle into minors at a price.
Pick: No Bet — Short-priced fav below fair; field <8 for E/W.
Book Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Tickets Handicap
#2 Pianoforte (Form: 3/3-21)
Lightly raced winner last time; well-positioned for 6f; model finds a value edge with ideal field size for E/W.
#5 Kelpie Grey (Form: 44-233)
Consistent with strong local course metrics; sits close to top on true probability and price.
#3 Aberama Gold (Form: 031664)
Classy and dangerous on best form but market slightly overestimates his win chance in this shape.
Pick: E/W — #2 Pianoforte
Book Christmas Day At Western House Handicap
#1 Ravishing Beauty (Form: 544211)
Dual recent winner with cheekpieces sparking improvement; most likely winner but model says price is short of fair.
#5 Runninsonofagun (Form: 9-0282)
Hitting the frame and now well set up by pace; small but meaningful value edge with place terms.
#4 Dwindling Funds (Form: 847113)
In form with course credentials; fair on our line despite rise.
Pick: E/W — #5 Runninsonofagun
Start You Racing TV Free Trial Handicap
#4 Billy Bathgate (Form: 341932)
Reliable stayer with recent 1m6f win and fresh placed effort; top true probability and meets Win criteria.
#5 Waystar (Form: -13940)
Shortlist horse stepping back up in trip; competitive mark and slight value on our line.
#2 Annandale (Form: 153647)
Course winner who stays well; fair price to outrun rating and hit the frame.
Pick: Win — #4 Billy Bathgate
Notes
Top Jockey = From our list of top jockeys.
Overround pill colours: 100–115% (green) 116–117% (orange) 118%+ (red)
Implied Probability (IP) is based on bookmaker odds. Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales runners to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair