Bet Smart & Win — Bangor-On-Dee Race Preview
Wednesday 12 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m7f32y
- Trainer RTF%: 23%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Stays well; step up in trip suits; solid profile and value edge versus fav.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m7f32y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Classy but short; stamina to prove at this trip; below fair at guide odds.
Details
- J: David Bass
- T: Charlie Longsdon
- Trip: 2m7f32y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Soft-ground form; each-way claims if improving finishing effort.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
- Trip: 2m4f72y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Impressive chase debut; strong SecEff-J; unexposed and well treated.
Details
- J: Harry Bannister
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 2m4f72y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
C&D winner; pace-pressing style suits; rock-solid jumper.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m4f72y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112.5%
Analysis
Heavy-ground winner; can finish strongly if pace collapses; slight jumping risk.
Details
- J: Nico de Boinville
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m1f77y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 106.9%
Analysis
Classy hurdler; if translating to fences, standard-setter; debut chase caution noted.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m1f77y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 106.9%
Analysis
Soft/heavy profile ideal; unbeaten chaser but short; value below fair.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Harry Derham
- Trip: 2m1f77y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 106.9%
Analysis
High-class bumper mare; stamina/technique over fences to prove first time.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 3m30y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Class-dropper; strong finisher if pace holds up; value above fair.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 3m30y
- Trainer RTF%: 23%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Reliable stayer; fresh record good; each-way claims in tight heat.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 3m30y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Front-runner; yard in form; will make own luck from the front.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m145y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111.1%
Analysis
Well-bred juvenile; stable excels in this sphere; market support a plus.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m145y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111.1%
Analysis
Juvenile from an adept yard; player if ready first time.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m145y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Back-to-back wins on soft; strong finishing speed; reliable jumper.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Harry Derham
- Trip: 2m145y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Grade 1 form reads well; fair price in easier company.
Details
- J: Nico de Boinville
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m145y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108.9%
Analysis
Finisher; jumping needs tidying; could pick up pieces late.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m145y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 106.6%
Analysis
Progressive mare; strong SecEff-J last time; solid favourite claims.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m145y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 106.6%
Analysis
Consistent soft-ground performer; always thereabouts; main danger.
Details
- J: William Shanahan
- T: Jennie Candlish
- Trip: 2m145y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 106.6%
Analysis
Fit from flat; credible hurdles form; a value alternative.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m3f123y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111.6%
Analysis
Seasonal return strong; SecEff-J excellent; profile screams “ready to win”.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m3f123y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111.6%
Analysis
Honest type; strong stamina; adds depth to stable’s hand.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: Tom Symonds
- Trip: 2m3f123y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111.6%
Analysis
C&D winner; well handicapped; finishing kick makes him a place player.
Analysis
Ideal conditions; race-fit; standout SecEff-J last time; reliable jumper; clear NP>IP value edge from a hot yard. Back with confidence.
Details
- Race: Greenhous Daf Handicap Hurdle (GBB), 16:00
- Trip: 2m3f123y • Going: Good to Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111.6%