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Bath 13/09/25 – Tap to Enter!

#Analysis, #Betting, #Horse Racing, #Predictions, #Sport
Bet Smart & Win
Bath — Fri 13/09/25
Races: 8 (1–8)

How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge

At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.

How To Pick Winners

We only place bets when a race meets the following criteria:

  • Overround: Between 100–115% (Green)
  • Runners: Between 8–12
  • Value: Above Fair (Green)
  • Class: 5, 4, 3
  • Jockey: Top 20 (strict whitelist)
  • NP: 27% or Above
  • IP: Below the NP (Normalised Probability)
  • Score System: Internal 20-point model; percentage derives from it.

Bath 13/09/25 — NAP

NAP
Overround: 111% Race: 6:45 (R7) Distance: 1m Runners: 11 Class: 6

#4 Marchetti (Form: -57543)

J: Tyrese Cameron NP: 32% IP: 27%
Why this is the NAP
  • Heavy-ground specialist; strong NP-IP gap; Above Fair standout.
  • Recent form indicates upward curve; Fair.
  • Capable closer; Above Fair vs odds.
  • This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model.
Score: 13/2065%
Details
Trainer: Jimmy Fox Trainer RTF%: 61 Odds: 4.0 Wt: 9-5 AF
1

3:28 Bath — Abbie Moon Is 18 Today Handicap (Class 6) — 2m1f24y

Overround: 112% Runners: 14 Going: Heavy-soft in places Class: 6

#7 Rupert The Prince (Form: 924131)

J: Ashley Lewis NP: 31% IP: 25%
Why we like this
  • Proven mud-lover; strong heavy-ground Sectional Effectiveness.
Score: 10/2050%
Details
Trainer: Paddy Butler Trainer RTF%: 47 Odds: 3.0 Wt: 9-7 AF

#5 Star Of Jupiter (Form: 952332)

J: Luke Morris NP: 24% IP: 19%
Why we like this
  • Consistent placer; Above Fair with NP > IP.
Score: 9/2045%
Details
Trainer: Mark Loughnane Trainer RTF%: 48 Odds: 5.0 Wt: 9-9 AF

#2 Gregorians Star (Form: 60733)

J: Charles Bishop NP: 18% IP: 15%
Why we like this
  • Stamina profile; handles deep ground; Fair value.
Score: 6/2030%
Details
Trainer: Sheena West Trainer RTF%: 40 Odds: 5.5 Wt: 9-11 F
2

4:05 Bath — Andersons Drainage Solutions Supporting Bath Racecourse Nursery Handicap (Class 5) — 5f10y

Overround: 109% Runners: 7 Going: Heavy-soft in places Class: 5

#2 Calafiori (Form: 202221)

J: Jack Callan NP: 33% IP: 29%
Why we like this
  • Fast early sectionals; wet-track proven; Above Fair.
Score: 13/2065%
Details
Trainer: George Boughey Trainer RTF%: 61 Odds: 3.5 Wt: 9-8 AF

#1 Cloudbuster (Form: 04331)

J: Elizabeth Gale NP: 27% IP: 24%
Why we like this
  • Progressive; strong late SecEff; Fair price.
Score: 12/2060%
Details
Trainer: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole Trainer RTF%: 48 Odds: 3.0 Wt: 9-9 F

#6 Carefree Dream (Form: 244372)

J: Ashley Lewis NP: 18% IP: 14%
Why we like this
  • Consistent on slower surfaces; Above Fair with books.
Score: 10/2050%
Details
Trainer: J S Moore Trainer RTF%: 52 Odds: 7.0 Wt: 9-3 AF
3

4:40 Bath — Andersons Drainage Serving The South West Handicap (Class 6) — 5f160y

Overround: 113% Runners: 12 Going: Heavy-soft in places Class: 6

#2 Mintana (Form: 14312-)

J: Joe Leavy NP: 30% IP: 25%
Why we like this
  • Loves cut; strong mid-race surge; Above Fair.
Score: 13/2065%
Details
Trainer: James Evans Trainer RTF%: 60 Odds: 4.0 Wt: 9-8 AF

#5 Autumn Festival (Form: 699592)

J: Luke Morris NP: 22% IP: 19%
Why we like this
  • Class drop; fitness edge; Fair rating.
Score: 11/2055%
Details
Trainer: Ed de Giles Trainer RTF%: 49 Odds: 6.0 Wt: 9-6 F

#8 Diamondsinthesand (Form: 551315)

J: Taryn Langley NP: 17% IP: 14%
Why we like this
  • Heavy-ground winner; closing fractions fit track bias.
Score: 10/2050%
Details
Trainer: Adrian Wintle Trainer RTF%: 62 Odds: 11.0 Wt: 9-4 AF
4

5:10 Bath — Andersons Commercial And Domestic Drainage Specialists Novice Stakes (Class 4) — 1m2f37y

Overround: 110% Runners: 11 Going: Heavy-soft in places Class: 4

#7 Goodwood Mogul (Form: 0-423)

J: Jason Watson NP: 46% IP: 42%
Why we like this
  • Class edge; stamina proven; Fair but clear.
Score: 14/2070%
Details
Trainer: Marcus Tregoning Trainer RTF%: 56 Odds: 1.3 Wt: 9-4 F

#8 Hellion (Form: 3)

J: Joe Leavy NP: 28% IP: 24%
Why we like this
  • Promising debut figure; AF with NP>IP.
Score: 15/2075%
Details
Trainer: Brian Meehan Trainer RTF%: 70 Odds: 6.5 Wt: 9-4 AF

#2 Prince Quattro (Form: 68)

J: Luke Morris NP: 12% IP: 9%
Why we like this
  • Mud pedigree; model flags late gains; Fair.
Score: 13/2065%
Details
Trainer: James Owen Trainer RTF%: 67 Odds: 8.0 Wt: 9-10 F
5

5:40 Bath — Rupert Hunt-Grubbe Cup EBF ‘Confined’ Restricted Maiden Stakes (Class 4) — 1m

Overround: 111% Runners: 10 Going: Heavy-soft in places Class: 4

#9 Tamzan (Form: 4)

J: Georgia Dobie NP: 34% IP: 29%
Why we like this
  • Big closing split on debut; AF with ground to suit.
Score: 15/2075%
Details
Trainer: Marcus Tregoning Trainer RTF%: 56 Odds: 3.0 Wt: 9-2 AF

#1 Magic Trip (Form: -)

J: Jason Watson NP: 25% IP: 22%
Why we like this
  • Well-regarded; heavy-ground aptitude; Fair.
Score: 11/2055%
Details
Trainer: Andrew Balding Trainer RTF%: – Odds: 5.5 Wt: 9-7 F

#10 Lapidarist (Form: 46)

J: Taryn Langley NP: 17% IP: 14%
Why we like this
  • Staying finish at Yarmouth reads well; AF on price.
Score: 12/2060%
Details
Trainer: David Simcock Trainer RTF%: – Odds: 6.0 Wt: 9-0 AF
6

6:13 Bath — Euram Air Leases Ireland Handicap (Div I) (Class 6) — 1m

Overround: 110% Runners: 11 Going: Heavy-soft in places Class: 6

#6 Unknown Journey (Form: 374463)

J: Jack Doughty NP: 28% IP: 23%
Why we like this
  • Relishes deep going; sectional index tops field; AF.
Score: 13/2065%
Details
Trainer: Tony Carroll Trainer RTF%: 39 Odds: 4.5 Wt: 9-2 AF

#7 Eye Of The Water (Form: 938843)

J: Jason Watson NP: 24% IP: 20%
Why we like this
  • Dual C&D scorer; consistent late thrust.
Score: 9/2045%
Details
Trainer: Ronald Harris Trainer RTF%: 50 Odds: 5.0 Wt: 9-2 F

#5 Too Much Trevor (Form: 328334)

J: Luke Morris NP: 18% IP: 16%
Why we like this
  • Holding form; SecEff improves with cut; AF.
Score: 12/2060%
Details
Trainer: Grace Harris Trainer RTF%: 54 Odds: 9.5 Wt: 9-3 AF
7

6:45 Bath — Euram Air Leases Ireland Handicap (Div II) (Class 6) — 1m

Overround: 111% Runners: 11 Going: Heavy-soft in places Class: 6

#4 Marchetti (Form: -57543)

J: Tyrese Cameron NP: 32% IP: 27%
Why we like this
  • Heavy-ground specialist; NP–IP gap; AF standout.
Score: 13/2065%
Details
Trainer: Jimmy Fox Trainer RTF%: 61 Odds: 5.0 Wt: 9-5 AF

#7 Blue Point Express (Form: -60461)

J: Taryn Langley NP: 23% IP: 20%
Why we like this
  • Recent win; upward curve; Fair.
Score: 9/2045%
Details
Trainer: Adrian Wintle Trainer RTF%: 55 Odds: 3.5 Wt: 9-4 F

#5 Anticipating (Form: 471387)

J: Elizabeth Gale NP: 17% IP: 14%
Why we like this
  • Capable closer; AF vs odds.
Score: 10/2050%
Details
Trainer: Alexandra Dunn Trainer RTF%: 56 Odds: 9.0 Wt: 9-4 AF
8

7:15 Bath — Signs Express ‘Confined’ Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap (Class 6) — 1m3f137y

Overround: 110% Runners: 13 Going: Heavy-soft in places Class: 6

#10 Mrs Meader (Form: -64882)

J: Mr Ross Birkett NP: 29% IP: 24%
Why we like this
  • Revival last start; heavy winner; AF.
Score: 10/2050%
Details
Trainer: Julia & Shelley Birkett Trainer RTF%: 18 Odds: 6.0 Wt: 10-8 AF

#3 Moab (Form: 766-83)

J: Miss Serena Brotherton NP: 22% IP: 18%
Why we like this
  • Top amateur rider; Fair.
Score: 6/2030%
Details
Trainer: Henrietta C Knight Trainer RTF%: 35 Odds: 6.0 Wt: 11-0 F

#12 Bobby Dassler (Form: 763422)

J: Miss Teagan Padgett NP: 17% IP: 15%
Why we like this
  • Strong stayer; AF.
Score: 7/2035%
Details
Trainer: Alison Thorpe Trainer RTF%: 50 Odds: 8.0 Wt: 10-4 AF

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