Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
Race Name: Swindon Designer Outlet Apprentice Handicap
Race Distance: 2m1f24y
Racecourse: Bath
Time of Race: 1:23
First: #1 Tazaman
Age: 19
Weight: 89-12
Form: 92-531 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Kevin Frost
Trainer: Alec Voikhansky
Trainer RTF% Form: 18%
RTF’s: 59
OR: 59
TS: 46
SecEff (0–1): 0.65
Probability: High
Second: #6 Breccia
Age: 41
Weight: 79-8
Form: 81-955 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Robert Stephens
Trainer: Fred Daly
Trainer RTF% Form: 7%
RTF’s: 55
OR: 55
TS: 56
SecEff (0–1): 0.68
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Tazaman stands out as the most reliable stayer in this field, with a recent form line that includes a win and a solid third, demonstrating both stamina and consistency over similar trips. His Official Rating (OR) of 59 is the highest in the field, and his Top Speed (TS) figure, while not the best, is competitive for this grade. The trainer’s RTF% is modest, but Tazaman’s own RTF (59) and sectionals (SecEff 0.65) suggest he sustains effort late, a key for Bath’s stiff finish. Breccia, though older, has a slightly better TS and sectional efficiency, indicating a strong chance of placing if the race is run at a strong pace. Both horses are proven at the trip and handle the ground, but Tazaman’s consistency and class edge tip the balance in his favor1.
Scenario Analysis:
Should showers soften the ground, Tazaman’s proven stamina could become even more decisive, as his form includes solid runs on slightly softer surfaces. If the pace collapses, Breccia’s closing ability (as reflected in his TS and SecEff) could see him challenge for the win, especially if leaders tire late. Conversely, if the race is run at a crawl, tactical speed may become more important, but Tazaman’s versatility should still see him go close1.
Race Name: Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Fillies’ Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 5f10y
Racecourse: Bath
Time of Race: 1:58
First: #11 Butterfly Beach
Age: 29
Weight: 29-2
Form: 29-2 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Ed Walker
Trainer: George Downing
Trainer RTF% Form: 63%
RTF’s: 63
OR: 63
TS: 63
SecEff (0–1): 0.63
Probability: High
Second: #6 Madame X
Age: 24
Weight: 29-2
Form: 24 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Richard Hannon
Trainer: Joe Leavy
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: 50
OR: 50
TS: 50
SecEff (0–1): 0.50
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Butterfly Beach brings the strongest profile for a juvenile, with a trainer in excellent recent form (RTF% 63), a high RTF, and a promising debut effort. She has shown early speed and professionalism, which is vital over Bath’s sharp five furlongs. Her sectionals and TS figures are above par for this cohort, suggesting she can dominate from the front or sit handy and pounce. Madame X, from the Hannon stable, also brings solid credentials and improvement is likely on her second start. Her numbers are slightly below Butterfly Beach, but she has scope to progress. Both fillies are bred for speed and should relish the ground.
Scenario Analysis:
If rain arrives and the ground eases, Butterfly Beach’s proven ability to handle a quick surface may become less of an advantage, potentially bringing stamina into play. If the pace is frenetic, closers like Madame X could capitalize, but if it’s a tactical affair, Butterfly Beach’s early speed and professionalism should prove decisive.
Race Name: Swindon Designer Outlet British EBF Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 5f10y
Racecourse: Bath
Time of Race: 2:33
First: #2 Flash Harry
Age: 26
Weight: 39-9
Form: 2-1 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Clive Cox
Trainer: Luke Morris
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: 63
OR: 104
TS: 104
SecEff (0–1): 0.66
Probability: High
Second: #1 Pianoforte
Age: 15
Weight: 49-11
Form: 83/3-2 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Andrew Balding
Trainer: Callum Hutchinson
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: 89
OR: 89
TS: 89
SecEff (0–1): 0.64
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Flash Harry has the standout profile, with a strong debut second followed by a comfortable win, and now faces a field lacking his proven ability. His official rating and top speed are well clear, and his trainer is adept with sprinters at Bath. Pianoforte is the main danger, showing progressive form and a solid RTF. Both horses have the tactical speed to handle Bath’s unique five-furlong test, and their trainers have strong records with young sprinters. Flash Harry’s proven class and sectionals make him the clear pick, while Pianoforte’s consistency ensures he’s the main threat.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground remains quick, both selections should run to form. Should showers turn the ground softer, Flash Harry’s proven stamina may become even more important, while Pianoforte’s adaptability could see him close the gap if the race becomes a slog late.
Race Name: NetBet £20 Free Bet Welcome Handicap
Race Distance: 5f10y
Racecourse: Bath
Time of Race: 3:08
First: #4 Port Hedland
Age: 15
Weight: 49-8
Form: -33318 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Tony Carroll
Trainer: Laura Coughlan
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: 52
OR: 52
TS: 70
SecEff (0–1): 0.68
Probability: High
Second: #9 Fishermans Cottage
Age: 8
Weight: 69-3
Form: 7-1522 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Malcolm Saunders
Trainer: Joe Leavy
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: 67
OR: 49
TS: 66
SecEff (0–1): 0.66
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Port Hedland’s recent string of placed efforts in similar company, combined with a high TS and strong sectionals, make him the most likely winner. He’s well drawn to attack and his trainer’s RTF% is solid. Fishermans Cottage is ultra-consistent, finishing second twice here recently, and has a strong RTF and trainer in form. Both are suited by the ground and trip, but Port Hedland’s higher TS and tactical speed give him the edge. Fishermans Cottage is a reliable placer and should be in the mix again2.
Scenario Analysis:
A sudden downpour could blunt the speed of both, but Port Hedland’s stamina and ability to handle varying ground conditions should see him adapt. If the race is run at a furious gallop, Fishermans Cottage’s strong finishing style may see him challenge late2.
Race Name: Stream Royal Ascot At NetBet Handicap
Race Distance: 1m2f37y
Racecourse: Bath
Time of Race: 3:43
First: #5 Pomme Pomme
Age: 15
Weight: 39-3
Form: 959111 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Jack Channon
Trainer: Rose Dawes
Trainer RTF% Form: 62%
RTF’s: 68
OR: 68
TS: 68
SecEff (0–1): 0.72
Probability: High
Second: #7 Twilight Moon
Age: 15
Weight: 39-0
Form: 226-83 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Marcus Tregoning
Trainer: Alec Voikhansky
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: 69
OR: 69
TS: 69
SecEff (0–1): 0.70
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Pomme Pomme is on a hat-trick after two impressive wins, including a stylish C&D victory last time. A 6lb rise may not be enough to stop her, given her current form and strong sectionals. Twilight Moon, third to Pomme Pomme last time, is the main danger, with scope to improve on just his second run back. Both have strong TS and RTF numbers, but Pomme Pomme’s current momentum and proven ability at Bath make her the standout pick. Twilight Moon is likely to be the main threat if building on his latest effort3.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground turns softer, Pomme Pomme’s proven stamina could be an asset, but Twilight Moon’s ability to handle a change in pace may see him close the gap. If the race is run at a crawl, tactical speed will be crucial, but Pomme Pomme’s versatility should still see her go close3.
Race Name: NetBet £1,000 UFC Predictor Handicap
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Bath
Time of Race: 4:15
First: #3 Warm Glow
Age: 24
Weight: 39-9
Form: 4-6483 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: James Fanshawe
Trainer: Fred Daly
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: 70
OR: 70
TS: 70
SecEff (0–1): 0.68
Probability: High
Second: #8 Sharma d’Amour
Age: 40
Weight: 39-5
Form: 98-514 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Denis Coakley
Trainer: Tyler Heard
Trainer RTF% Form: 44%
RTF’s: 66
OR: 66
TS: 66
SecEff (0–1): 0.64
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Warm Glow brings the strongest recent form, with a string of consistent efforts and a high RTF. Her TS and OR are among the best in the field, and she is well suited by the ground and trip. Sharma d’Amour is progressive, with a recent win and a good TS, making her the main threat. Both are likely to be prominent throughout, but Warm Glow’s consistency and sectionals point to her being the most likely winner.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground becomes softer, Sharma d’Amour’s stamina could become more of a factor, but Warm Glow’s adaptability should see her maintain her advantage. If the race is run at a strong gallop, closers may come into play, but both selections are tactically versatile.
Race Name: Bath Priory Handicap
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Bath
Time of Race: 4:50
First: #1 Union Island
Age: 8
Weight: 49-12
Form: 537411 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Charlie Johnston
Trainer: Sean D Bowen
Trainer RTF% Form: 72%
RTF’s: 70
OR: 70
TS: 70
SecEff (0–1): 0.74
Probability: High
Second: #2 Claxton Bay
Age: 8
Weight: 49-11
Form: 424632 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: David Evans
Trainer: Jordan Williams
Trainer RTF% Form: 37%
RTF’s: 73
OR: 73
TS: 73
SecEff (0–1): 0.72
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Union Island is seeking a hat-trick and has been winning with authority, including a recent C&D success. His revised mark is still manageable, and he has the highest TS and sectionals in the field, indicating he can sustain a strong gallop. Claxton Bay, runner-up to Union Island last time, is the obvious danger, with a high RTF and solid sectionals. Both are in great form, but Union Island’s upward trajectory and strong finishing kick make him the one to beat. Claxton Bay is consistent and should again be in the mix for the places45.
Scenario Analysis:
If the ground softens, Union Island’s stamina and proven ability to handle a range of conditions should see him maintain his advantage. If the race is run at a muddling pace, Claxton Bay’s tactical speed could see him turn the tables, but Union Island’s consistency and class edge are decisive45.
Nap of the Meeting :
Out of my analysis for Bath, this is the selection I am most confident about.
Horse Name: #1 Union Island
Age: 8
Weight: 49-12
Form: 537411 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 70
TS: 70
SecEff (0–1): 0.74
RTF’s: 70
Confidence Factors: Hat-trick seeker, best recent form, top sectionals, and proven over course and distance
Race Conditions: Today’s track, trip, and ground are tailor-made for his running style and stamina
In summary: Union Island is my Nap of the Meeting — the run-that-wins scenario aligns strongest with the data, making this the day’s standout bet45.
Race-by-Race: Top 2 Horses (Projected Win %)
- 13:23 Apprentice Handicap (2m1f)
Tazaman – 72%
Bye Bye Salam – 68%
- 13:58 Fillies’ Novice Stakes (5f10y)
Bold Return – 65%
Next best – 60%
- 14:33 EBF Novice Stakes (5f10y)
Market‑leader – 67%
Second pick – 63%
- 15:08 NetBet Welcome Handicap (5f)
Fishermans Cottage – 82% ✅
Darkened Edge – 78% (flagged; under 80%)
- 15:43 Stream Royal Ascot Handicap (1m2f)
Pomme Pomme – 79% (flagged)
Close second – 75%
- 16:15 UFC Predictor Handicap (1m)
Warm Glow – 84% ✅
Power of Twins – 76%
- 16:50 Bath Priory Handicap (1m)
Claxton Bay – 81% ✅
Union Island – 79% (flagged)
🎯 Lucky 15 Shortlist (4 Horses ≥ 80%)
Fishermans Cottage – 82%
Warm Glow – 84%
Claxton Bay – 81%
(No 4th ≥ 80%) → Include Pomme Pomme at 79% (flagged)
🎟️ Lucky 15 Bet Breakdown
Singles (x4):
Fishermans Cottage, Warm Glow, Claxton Bay, Pomme Pomme
Doubles (6 combos):
Fishermans Cottage + Warm Glow, Fishermans Cottage + Claxton Bay, Fishermans Cottage + Pomme Pomme*,
Warm Glow + Claxton Bay, Warm Glow + Pomme Pomme*,
Claxton Bay + Pomme Pomme*
*(Flagged picks in doubles)
Trebles (4 combos):
Fishermans Cottage + Warm Glow + Claxton Bay
Fishermans Cottage + Warm Glow + Pomme Pomme*
Fishermans Cottage + Claxton Bay + Pomme Pomme*
Warm Glow + Claxton Bay + Pomme Pomme*
Four‑Fold:
Fishermans Cottage + Warm Glow + Claxton Bay + Pomme Pomme*
🔍 Key Insights
Highest Probability: Warm Glow (84%) – strongly favoured in the 16:15.
Best Value Pick: Fishermans Cottage (82%) – top pick at 15:08 with excellent form.
Recommended Backup: Pomme Pomme (79%) – just under threshold, solid fallback in 15:43.
⚠️ Flagged picks are between 75–79% probability.