How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Bath
#1, Solar Edge (Form: -85212)
Sectional efficiency on quick ground; ideal field size and pace setup; current mark within range; value edge vs market. This is our strongest “run-that-wins” scenario today — back with confidence.
BetWright Bet The Wright Way Handicap (Bath Summer Stayers’ Series Qualifier)
#5, Trojan Truth (Form: -44111)
In red-hot form seeking a four-timer and well suited to quick ground and staying trip, but current market likely overestimates with IP above NP on a small field overround.
#3, Bohemian Breeze (Form: -64313)
Reliable stayer with recent win and place form; profile fits the test but priced tightly in a compressed market, leaving marginal value deficit vs normalized fair.
#5, Man Of The Sea (Form: 5141-1)
Dual-purpose veteran arriving off a win; stamina assured and turf mark workable, with small positive value edge compared to market on firm ground scenario.
Pick
Bet Type — No Bet — Overround elevated, top chances priced below fair; only minor value angles on place prospects without each-way terms meeting criteria (field <8).
Ryano Plant Limited Equestrian Construction Handicap
#3, Princess Mia (Form: 5-331)
Improving 3yo who made all last time; still open to progress and well drawn for prominent ride on firm, with price close to fair on our line.
#6, Timeless Spirit (Form: 5-5672)
Consistent recent runner-up suggests mark workable; pace setup could suit a stalk, creating positive value gap vs market in a 9-runner field.
#8, Star Of Atlantis (Form: 561692)
Course-placed type who handles quick ground; holds form to make frame with price roughly aligned to fair in a competitive low-grade mile.
Pick
Bet Type — Each Way — Timeless Spirit fits E/W rules (Prob ~19%, Odds ≥5/1 forecast, Value ≥ Fair, Field=9, SecEff ≥0.88 by last-run finishing efficiency on firm).
BetWright Bangers N’Cash EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB)
#1, Calafiori (Form: 622022)
Sets the standard on form with nursery near-misses; however, even-money quotes inflate IP beyond fair on a small field with potential improvers lurking.
#3, Justcallmesergio (Form: —)
Well-bred newcomer from a yard adept with 2yo sprinters; debut unknowns justify fair alignment with market in a thin maiden.
#5, Zipwire (Form: 24)
Shows pace and track-suited speed; on fast ground can step forward, and current odds carry a modest value premium versus fair.
Pick
Bet Type — No Bet — Head of market under fair; maiden uncertainty plus short-priced fav below value disqualifies win/EW setups.
BetWright All Bun & Games Handicap
#2, Moe’s Legacy (Form: 441113)
Seeking third C&D win; strong track affinity and current form make her the most efficient sectional finisher in a tight 5-runner sprint.
#1, Safari Dream (Form: 011164)
Consistent with multiple wins this summer; prominent style suits Bath’s fast 5.5f, priced close to fair.
#4, Connie’s Rose (Form: 723325)
Reliable placer at the track with finishing kick; offers small value to hit the frame in a tactical small field.
Pick
Bet Type — No Bet — Field <8 negates each-way; win probability leaders near but not above 25% with limited value to risk-adjusted target.
Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap
#4, Banana (Form: 355143)
Front-running style has been effective all summer; however, market marginally overstates chance in a small field with pace pressure possible.
#1, Secret Handsheikh (Form: 575437)
Back to a workable mark and handles firm; value emerges if getting tow from Banana to pounce late.
#3, Little Miss Magic (Form: -88239)
Has form to figure but apprentice claim already factored into price, leaving slight value deficit.
Pick
Bet Type — No Bet — Small field and overround compresses EW; leaders under fair for win stipulations.
BetWright Safer Gambling Handicap (Bath Summer Sprint Series Qualifier)
#1, Solar Edge (Form: -85212)
Strong recent figures and effective prominent racer; well positioned on speed-favouring ground to convert near-term form into a win.
#2, Cindy Lou Who (Form: 712313)
C&D winner holding form; tactical speed matches Bath’s profile with price aligned to fair.
#3, Azuinthejungle (Form: 036111)
Hat-trick scorer thriving but travel and likely pace contention could blunt edge; market now a shade short against our fair line.
Pick
Bet Type — Win — Solar Edge satisfies Win rules (Prob >25%, Value=Above Fair, SecEff ≥0.88 off last two runs, Odds ≥1/1 on forecast lines).
Notes
Top Jockey = From our list of top jockeys.
Value Key: AF = Above Fair F = Fair BF = Below Fair
Implied Probability represents the chance of winning based solely on bookmaker odds. Normalized Probability adjusts this figure so all selections in a race total 100%, removing the bookmaker’s margin. Ideally you want the Normalized Probability to be higher than the Implied Probability.