How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Beverley 24/08/25
#13 Ten Sixty Six (Form: 2)
Debut was full of promise and the step to Beverley’s 7f suits; NP exceeds IP, confirming value and a strong “run-that-wins” scenario.
2:05 Beverley – Connexin’s Gigabit Gallop Handicap (Class 4) (1m1f207y, 7 runners)
#7 Time Tells All (Form: 754131)
C&D record strong and recent form solid; NP>IP signals value with tactical speed to secure position from the gate.
#4 Mafting (Form: 22105)
Progressive 3yo with handy weight; figures suggest strong E/W appeal if price allows.
#1 Primo Lara (Form: 08-556)
Higher end of the weights but consistent enough to feature late if pace collapses.
Analysis
Time Tells All is preferred on strong C&D synergy and a positive NP>IP edge; Mafting the E/W alternative, with Primo Lara for minor money.
2:40 Beverley – Tomahawk Steakhouse Sprint Handicap (Class 4) (5f, 11 runners)
#2 Emeralds Pride (Form: -65412)
Last year’s winner returns in top form; pace map ideal to pounce late.
#9 Tees Aggregates (Form: 704301)
Improver with the right early speed to hold prominent position; clear frame player.
#4 Winchurch (Form: 755107)
Capable on his day; if settling behind a hot pace, can grab a place.
Analysis
Emeralds Pride brings proven C&D and recent peak efforts; Tees Aggregates is a live E/W; Winchurch rounds out the three.
3:10 Beverley – John William Phillips Memorial Nursery Handicap (Class 4) (5f, 9 runners)
#2 Gaga Mate (Form: 1033)
Finished well in the Super Sprint; stiffer 5f a plus and ratings point to added upside.
#4 Chairmanfourtimes (Form: 22313)
Reliable and progressive; strong E/W play with pace versatility.
#9 U Turn (Form: 322541)
Course form and consistency keep him in the frame; fair price to place.
Analysis
Gaga Mate rates the win pick on finishing power; Chairmanfourtimes the E/W saver; U Turn for the minors.
3:45 Beverley – IRE-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Class 4) (7f96y, 14 runners)
#13 Ten Sixty Six (Form: 2)
Musselburgh debut solid; step forward expected over this stiffer 7f.
#8 Fairydale (Form: 40)
Two educational runs; yard expects improvement with experience and trip.
#12 Miss Potomac (Form: 8)
Notable yard; experience from debut should bring a sharper effort for a place.
Analysis
Ten Sixty Six sets the standard; Fairydale the danger; Miss Potomac a place prospect.
4:20 Beverley – Greatest Worker Martin Spencer Finally Retires Handicap (Class 5) (1m100y, 9 runners)
#1 Mudamer (Form: 024386)
Handicap mark workable; recent runs hint a return to peak, making him a prime win candidate.
#7 This Years Love (Form: -24081)
Comes here off a win; similar conditions should see him competitive again.
#8 Sunny Orange (Form: 218751)
Recent Beverley scorer with a likeable attitude; rates a solid place pick.
Analysis
Mudamer edges a trappy handicap on a workable mark; This Years Love and Sunny Orange are the main threats.
4:55 Beverley – Thanks To Beverley Lions Handicap (Class 5) (1m4f23y, 7 runners)
#7 Twilight Moon (Form: 832311)
Arrives in top nick with stamina building; tactically versatile for Beverley’s turns.
#3 Percy’s Daydream (Form: -31321)
Well placed at the trip, upward curve continues; strong winning chance.
#5 Dr Rio (Form: 423166)
Track specialist with enough recent form to land a placing.
Analysis
Twilight Moon gets the nod on current trajectory; Percy’s Daydream a major threat; Dr Rio consistent for a place.
Notes
Top Jockey = Included in our curated list of leading riders.
Overround colour guide: 100%–115% 116%–117% 118%+ ≤99%
Implied Probability (IP) derives from bookmaker prices; Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales the book to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP to confirm value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair